Recent polls place Likud between 19 and 26 seats, with averages near 22–23, aligning with the market’s concentration in the 20–29 range and the narrow spread between the leading buckets. Fragmentation on the right has intensified since Ofer Winter launched Amcha Yisrael, which polls at 4–8 seats while pulling support from Likud and Religious Zionism and occasionally pushing the latter below the 3.25% threshold. Internal Likud primaries, disputes over list composition, and Netanyahu’s acknowledgment of lost ground have further eroded the party’s base. Competing centrist lists led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett continue to draw moderate right-leaning voters, while bloc arithmetic remains fluid because small-party performance determines whether surplus votes flow to or away from the Netanyahu-aligned camp. Final candidate lists due in early September, potential right-wing mergers, and any late security or diplomatic developments could still shift the distribution before the October 27 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25-29 34%
20-24 30%
<20 15.3%
30-34 15%
$115,762 交易量
$115,762 交易量
2026-10-26
<20
15%
20-24
30%
25-29
34%
30-34
15%
35+
5%
25-29 34%
20-24 30%
<20 15.3%
30-34 15%
$115,762 交易量
$115,762 交易量
2026-10-26
<20
$40,015 交易量
15%
20-24
$18,620 交易量
30%
25-29
$26,192 交易量
34%
30-34
$20,936 交易量
15%
35+
$10,000 交易量
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls place Likud between 19 and 26 seats, with averages near 22–23, aligning with the market’s concentration in the 20–29 range and the narrow spread between the leading buckets. Fragmentation on the right has intensified since Ofer Winter launched Amcha Yisrael, which polls at 4–8 seats while pulling support from Likud and Religious Zionism and occasionally pushing the latter below the 3.25% threshold. Internal Likud primaries, disputes over list composition, and Netanyahu’s acknowledgment of lost ground have further eroded the party’s base. Competing centrist lists led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett continue to draw moderate right-leaning voters, while bloc arithmetic remains fluid because small-party performance determines whether surplus votes flow to or away from the Netanyahu-aligned camp. Final candidate lists due in early September, potential right-wing mergers, and any late security or diplomatic developments could still shift the distribution before the October 27 vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$115,762结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls place Likud between 19 and 26 seats, with averages near 22–23, aligning with the market’s concentration in the 20–29 range and the narrow spread between the leading buckets. Fragmentation on the right has intensified since Ofer Winter launched Amcha Yisrael, which polls at 4–8 seats while pulling support from Likud and Religious Zionism and occasionally pushing the latter below the 3.25% threshold. Internal Likud primaries, disputes over list composition, and Netanyahu’s acknowledgment of lost ground have further eroded the party’s base. Competing centrist lists led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett continue to draw moderate right-leaning voters, while bloc arithmetic remains fluid because small-party performance determines whether surplus votes flow to or away from the Netanyahu-aligned camp. Final candidate lists due in early September, potential right-wing mergers, and any late security or diplomatic developments could still shift the distribution before the October 27 vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$115,762结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETRecent polls place Likud between 19 and 26 seats, with averages near 22–23, aligning with the market’s concentration in the 20–29 range and the narrow spread between the leading buckets. Fragmentation on the right has intensified since Ofer Winter launched Amcha Yisrael, which polls at 4–8 seats while pulling support from Likud and Religious Zionism and occasionally pushing the latter below the 3.25% threshold. Internal Likud primaries, disputes over list composition, and Netanyahu’s acknowledgment of lost ground have further eroded the party’s base. Competing centrist lists led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett continue to draw moderate right-leaning voters, while bloc arithmetic remains fluid because small-party performance determines whether surplus votes flow to or away from the Netanyahu-aligned camp. Final candidate lists due in early September, potential right-wing mergers, and any late security or diplomatic developments could still shift the distribution before the October 27 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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