Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination

A late‑May poll of Democratic voters placed Newsom at 24% support, the highest among all potential nominees, reinforcing his market price increase to the endpoint of 24% and confirming his status as the market’s front‑runner.

Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for Pennsylvania governor reelection

Shapiro's record fundraising for his reelection bid elevated his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though his market price remained low due to prior controversies.

Rahm Emanuel’s endorsement of another candidate sidelines his own prospects

Emanuel publicly endorsed a fellow Democrat, effectively ending his own campaign and driving his market price down to the lowest level.

Rahm Emanuel’s support erodes after policy disagreement with party leadership

Rahm Emanuel rises to 3%1%

Emanuel’s public clash with Democratic leadership over a tax proposal reduced his appeal, moving his market price from 2% to 3% as some voters shifted away.

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%

Mahan's entry added a moderate Democratic candidate critical of Newsom, influencing the dynamics of the governor's race and potentially Newsom's 2028 prospects, reflected in minor market fluctuations.

Andy Beshear’s low‑key campaign fails to gain traction in national polls

Andy Beshear dips to 2%3%

Beshear’s lack of national visibility and poor poll numbers led to a continued decline in his market price, reflecting limited expectations for a 2028 bid.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal overreach and highlighted his progressive record, reinforcing his stature as a 2028 presidential contender and supporting a moderate rise in his market price.

Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

Swalwell’s exit removed a major competitor, allowing remaining candidates to consolidate support; the market prices for other front‑runners stabilized, with Newsom’s price edging up slightly to 24% by mid‑May.

Kamala Harris announces she will not run for 2028 Democratic nomination

Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%

Harris publicly confirmed she will not seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, removing her from contention and causing her market price to fall from 9% to 6% as traders adjusted expectations.

Andy Beshear’s campaign stalls amid low voter awareness

Beshear’s low‑profile campaign failed to gain traction, keeping his market price flat at 3% after a brief rise earlier in the year.

Pete Buttigieg’s campaign announces withdrawal from 2028 race

Pete Buttigieg drops to 4%8%

Buttigieg’s exit removed him from contention, causing his market price to collapse to near‑zero as investors reallocated support to remaining candidates.

Georgia sets special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene

Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%

The special election to replace Greene could impact the political landscape and influence Democratic prospects, indirectly affecting candidates like Jon Ossoff in the 2028 nomination market.

Gavin Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for final year

Gavin Newsom drops to 27%8%

The disclosed deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, prompting a price correction from 35% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.

Pete Buttigieg’s poll numbers dip after debate performance

Pete Buttigieg dips to 4%1%

Buttigieg’s weak showing in a televised debate caused his poll share to slip, moving his market price from 5% to 4% the next day.

Jon Ossoff’s Senate race draws criticism over staff hiring ethics

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

An ethics report implicating a top aide to Ossoff’s opponent raised concerns about campaign conduct, indirectly harming Ossoff’s perceived electability and lowering his market price.

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.

Trevor Noah to host Grammy Awards for sixth and final time

While not directly related to the nomination market, cultural events like the Grammys can influence public sentiment and candidate visibility, indirectly affecting market dynamics.

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.

Kamala Harris rebrands and relaunches campaign social media accounts

Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%

Kamala Harris relaunched and rebranded her campaign social media accounts, signaling renewed efforts to maintain political relevance and possibly influence the 2028 Democratic nomination race. This move was noted in the market but had limited impact on her odds.

Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges vetting team questioned him about Israeli ties

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

In his memoir, Shapiro claimed Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he was an Israeli agent, stirring controversy and scrutiny that likely contributed to his market price decline.

Gavin Newsom criticizes European leaders and Trump diplomacy at Davos forum

Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%

Newsom's blunt remarks at the World Economic Forum criticizing global leaders' handling of Trump and calling for stronger American leadership increased his national visibility and bolstered his presidential prospects.

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.

Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing national profile

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%

Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioned him as a potential 2028 presidential contender, boosting his market price as voters and donors took note of his national ambitions.

Josh Shapiro’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall

Shapiro’s campaign reported a significant drop in fundraising, leading to a modest decline in his market price from 4% to 4% (stable) but reinforcing the downward trend from earlier months.

Rep. Eric Swalwell ends California governor campaign amid allegations

Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%

Swalwell abruptly withdrew from the California governor race following sexual assault allegations, causing a collapse in his market price and reshaping the Democratic field for 2028.

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance, increasing governor's power

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Governor Newsom proposed reforms to California's K-12 education system, aiming to reduce the elected superintendent's role and increase the State Board of Education's and governor's control. This policy move highlighted Newsom's leadership style and ambitions, impacting his market standing.

Trump revokes Secret Service protection for Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

President Trump revoked Secret Service protection for former Vice President Kamala Harris, signaling political hostility and possibly affecting her perceived viability as a 2028 nominee, contributing to a decline in her market price.

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, opposing Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%

Sanders’ public support for a billionaire tax opposed by Newsom highlighted intra‑party divisions, slightly dampening Newsom’s momentum and contributing to a modest price dip from 38% to 35% later in December.

Jon Ossoff exits California governor contest

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

Ossoff withdrew his candidacy amid a crowded field, causing his market price to drop from 4% to 3% as investors reassessed his chances.

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends California governor campaign

Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%

Swalwell's campaign collapse following sexual assault allegations led to his withdrawal from the governor's race, reducing competition and shifting market support among Democratic candidates.

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s fundraising shortfall disclosed

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 10%40%

Financial disclosures revealed Ocasio‑Cortez’s campaign raised far less than anticipated, prompting a steep decline in her market price as investors doubted her viability for the 2028 ticket.

Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Swalwell, a former 2020 presidential candidate, entered the crowded race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom, initially boosting his profile as a potential 2028 presidential contender. This announcement likely increased his market odds early in the analysis window.

Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez endorses a rival in California governor primary

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drops to 4%10%

Ocasio‑Cortez publicly backed another Democratic candidate, signaling reduced personal ambition for the governor’s office and pushing her market price down from 14% to 4%.

Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation, focusing on Senate duties

Reports that Harris was not pursuing a 2028 run reduced her perceived candidacy, contributing to a continued decline in her market price, which fell to 4% by early November.

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.

Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism from women's rights advocates

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Newsom's veto of the menopause-related insurance coverage bill sparked criticism from prominent figures like Halle Berry, potentially affecting his support among women voters and slightly impacting his market probability.

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.

Kamala Harris drops out of California governor race

Kamala Harris dips to 2%4%

Harris announced she would not run for California governor, removing her from the race and causing her market price to fall sharply from 6% to 2% the following week.

Kamala Harris’s poll support plunges to historic low

Kamala Harris plunges to 2%37%

A new poll showing Harris trailing significantly in national favorability triggered a sharp price drop for her, reflecting diminished expectations of a 2028 nomination.

Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats

The court’s decision secured Democratic‑leaning districts for the 2026 elections, reinforcing the perception that California Democrats, including potential presidential contenders, have structural advantages, which helped stabilize Newsom’s price after earlier volatility.

Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address, touts California as a national model

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%14%

Newsom’s speech highlighted his record and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his visibility and perceived electability, which coincided with a rise in his market price from 18% to 32% in early September.

Poll shows Newsom leading in early California governor primary

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

A September poll gave Newsom a clear lead among Democratic governor candidates, prompting a jump from 20% to 32% as voters saw him as the likely front‑runner.

Josh Shapiro raises $30 million, setting Pennsylvania fundraising record

Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%

Shapiro’s massive fundraising haul highlighted his national profile but also underscored his focus on Pennsylvania, causing market participants to shift away from his 2028 presidential prospects.

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.

Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, enters California governor race

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Mahan’s entry added another moderate Democrat, further fragmenting the field and prompting a reallocation of support that nudged Newsom’s price upward while pulling votes from other contenders.

Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in State of the State address

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioning California as a model for the nation raised his national profile and suggested a 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price from 18% to 20%.

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, expanding crowded Democratic field

Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile candidate, intensifying competition and contributing to a sharp drop in the market prices of other potential nominees, including Kamala Harris (down to 6%) and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (down to 16%).

Eric Swalwell launches California governor bid on national TV

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Swalwell’s high‑profile announcement on Jimmy Kimmel Live! added a prominent contender to the race, drawing attention away from other Democrats and contributing to early price volatility for Newsom and his rivals.

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting fight against Trump

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Swalwell's entry into the California governor race as a Democrat and vocal Trump critic initially raised his profile, impacting market perceptions of Democratic contenders including Newsom and others in the crowded field.

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.

Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech highlighting California as national model

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Newsom used his final State of the State address to tout California's progressive policies and position himself as a national leader, boosting his profile as a 2028 presidential contender and increasing market confidence in his nomination chances.