PL leads the market at 85.5% implied probability for most seats after the October 2026 Senate election, in which 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning reflects the party's strong state-level organization, candidate recruitment, and alignment with Bolsonarista voters across multiple states. Other parties trail significantly, with MDB at 4.9% and PP at 4.6%, consistent with their more fragmented regional bases and limited momentum in the current cycle. Recent polling for the concurrent presidential race shows Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, yet Senate dynamics favor PL due to first-past-the-post races per state and the party's established incumbency advantages in key contests. Trader consensus has remained stable amid ongoing coalition negotiations and no major shifts in party registration or scandals altering the landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于自由党（PL） 86%
NOVO 5.1%
巴西民主运动党（MDB） 4.5%
进步党（PP） 2.9%
$46,753 交易量
$46,753 交易量
2026-10-04
自由党（PL）
86%
NOVO
5%
巴西民主运动党（MDB）
4%
进步党（PP）
3%
社会民主党（PSD）
3%
巴西联盟党（UNIÃO）
2%
巴西民主工党（PDT）
1%
巴西社会民主党（PSDB）
1%
劳工党（PT）
<1%
共和党
<1%
巴西社会党（PSB）
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
自由党（PL） 86%
NOVO 5.1%
巴西民主运动党（MDB） 4.5%
进步党（PP） 2.9%
$46,753 交易量
$46,753 交易量
2026-10-04
自由党（PL）
$30,009 交易量
86%
NOVO
$993 交易量
5%
巴西民主运动党（MDB）
$1,338 交易量
4%
进步党（PP）
$1,654 交易量
3%
社会民主党（PSD）
$1,272 交易量
3%
巴西联盟党（UNIÃO）
$1,007 交易量
2%
巴西民主工党（PDT）
$4,768 交易量
1%
巴西社会民主党（PSDB）
$1,165 交易量
1%
劳工党（PT）
$1,176 交易量
<1%
共和党
$927 交易量
<1%
巴西社会党（PSB）
$1,079 交易量
<1%
PODEMOS
$1,365 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).PL leads the market at 85.5% implied probability for most seats after the October 2026 Senate election, in which 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning reflects the party's strong state-level organization, candidate recruitment, and alignment with Bolsonarista voters across multiple states. Other parties trail significantly, with MDB at 4.9% and PP at 4.6%, consistent with their more fragmented regional bases and limited momentum in the current cycle. Recent polling for the concurrent presidential race shows Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, yet Senate dynamics favor PL due to first-past-the-post races per state and the party's established incumbency advantages in key contests. Trader consensus has remained stable amid ongoing coalition negotiations and no major shifts in party registration or scandals altering the landscape.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$46,753结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).PL leads the market at 85.5% implied probability for most seats after the October 2026 Senate election, in which 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning reflects the party's strong state-level organization, candidate recruitment, and alignment with Bolsonarista voters across multiple states. Other parties trail significantly, with MDB at 4.9% and PP at 4.6%, consistent with their more fragmented regional bases and limited momentum in the current cycle. Recent polling for the concurrent presidential race shows Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, yet Senate dynamics favor PL due to first-past-the-post races per state and the party's established incumbency advantages in key contests. Trader consensus has remained stable amid ongoing coalition negotiations and no major shifts in party registration or scandals altering the landscape.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
交易量
$46,753结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL leads the market at 85.5% implied probability for most seats after the October 2026 Senate election, in which 54 of 81 seats are contested. This positioning reflects the party's strong state-level organization, candidate recruitment, and alignment with Bolsonarista voters across multiple states. Other parties trail significantly, with MDB at 4.9% and PP at 4.6%, consistent with their more fragmented regional bases and limited momentum in the current cycle. Recent polling for the concurrent presidential race shows Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, yet Senate dynamics favor PL due to first-past-the-post races per state and the party's established incumbency advantages in key contests. Trader consensus has remained stable amid ongoing coalition negotiations and no major shifts in party registration or scandals altering the landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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