Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒） 7.3%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF） 5.2%
塔卡杜姆党 3.2%
ReLebanon 2.8%
$532,450 交易量
$532,450 交易量
2026-05-31
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒）
7%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF）
5%
塔卡杜姆党
3%
ReLebanon
3%
马拉达运动
3%
真主党（Hezb）
3%
伊斯兰慈善项目协会（ICPA）
2%
瓦塔尼联盟（Watani）
2%
自由爱国运动（FPM）
2%
卡塔伊布党（Kataeb）
1%
联盟党（UP）
1%
受欢迎的纳赛尔主义者组织（PNO）
1%
国家自由党（NLP）
1%
伊斯兰集团（IG）
<1%
全国对话党（NDP）
<1%
亚美尼亚革命联盟（ARF）
<1%
玛达党（Mada）
<1%
拉娜 – 社会民主党（拉娜）
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党）
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
进步社会党（PSP）
<1%
独立运动
<1%
尊严运动（DM）
<1%
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒） 7.3%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF） 5.2%
塔卡杜姆党 3.2%
ReLebanon 2.8%
$532,450 交易量
$532,450 交易量
2026-05-31
阿迈勒运动（阿迈勒）
$53,709 交易量
7%
黎巴嫩力量党（LF）
$158,091 交易量
5%
塔卡杜姆党
$6,113 交易量
3%
ReLebanon
$3,307 交易量
3%
马拉达运动
$3,796 交易量
3%
真主党（Hezb）
$44,038 交易量
3%
伊斯兰慈善项目协会（ICPA）
$4,398 交易量
2%
瓦塔尼联盟（Watani）
$4,686 交易量
2%
自由爱国运动（FPM）
$74,483 交易量
2%
卡塔伊布党（Kataeb）
$4,126 交易量
1%
联盟党（UP）
$3,376 交易量
1%
受欢迎的纳赛尔主义者组织（PNO）
$4,584 交易量
1%
国家自由党（NLP）
$5,135 交易量
1%
伊斯兰集团（IG）
$3,585 交易量
<1%
全国对话党（NDP）
$41,888 交易量
<1%
亚美尼亚革命联盟（ARF）
$5,112 交易量
<1%
玛达党（Mada）
$24,363 交易量
<1%
拉娜 – 社会民主党（拉娜）
$4,450 交易量
<1%
黎巴嫩阿拉伯社会主义复兴党（复兴党）
$6,573 交易量
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
$3,330 交易量
<1%
进步社会党（PSP）
$47,456 交易量
<1%
独立运动
$3,135 交易量
<1%
尊严运动（DM）
$22,716 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$532,450结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$532,450结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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