One Nation’s recent polling surge and Coalition instability have already drawn several switches since late 2025, including Barnaby Joyce’s December defection and later moves by figures such as Cory Bernardi. Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a shift after One Nation’s Farrer by-election win in May 2026 before ruling it out, while other Liberal-aligned individuals exited amid internal party tensions. These developments, alongside Prime Minister Albanese’s comments on expected further realignments, underpin trader pricing of a modest majority chance that at least one additional sitting MP will join before the end of 2026. Remaining months and any new Coalition fractures could still alter the balance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于另一位现任澳大利亚国会议员是否会在2026年加入One Nation ？
另一位现任澳大利亚国会议员是否会在2026年加入One Nation ？
是
0% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
0% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.One Nation’s recent polling surge and Coalition instability have already drawn several switches since late 2025, including Barnaby Joyce’s December defection and later moves by figures such as Cory Bernardi. Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a shift after One Nation’s Farrer by-election win in May 2026 before ruling it out, while other Liberal-aligned individuals exited amid internal party tensions. These developments, alongside Prime Minister Albanese’s comments on expected further realignments, underpin trader pricing of a modest majority chance that at least one additional sitting MP will join before the end of 2026. Remaining months and any new Coalition fractures could still alter the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
交易量
$172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.One Nation’s recent polling surge and Coalition instability have already drawn several switches since late 2025, including Barnaby Joyce’s December defection and later moves by figures such as Cory Bernardi. Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a shift after One Nation’s Farrer by-election win in May 2026 before ruling it out, while other Liberal-aligned individuals exited amid internal party tensions. These developments, alongside Prime Minister Albanese’s comments on expected further realignments, underpin trader pricing of a modest majority chance that at least one additional sitting MP will join before the end of 2026. Remaining months and any new Coalition fractures could still alter the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$172结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...One Nation’s recent polling surge and Coalition instability have already drawn several switches since late 2025, including Barnaby Joyce’s December defection and later moves by figures such as Cory Bernardi. Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a shift after One Nation’s Farrer by-election win in May 2026 before ruling it out, while other Liberal-aligned individuals exited amid internal party tensions. These developments, alongside Prime Minister Albanese’s comments on expected further realignments, underpin trader pricing of a modest majority chance that at least one additional sitting MP will join before the end of 2026. Remaining months and any new Coalition fractures could still alter the balance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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