Recent polling shows New Zealand’s two major blocs locked in a tight contest ahead of the November 7 election under the MMP system, with National-led support hovering near 49-51% and Labour-led opposition around 41-42% in aggregates. The incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition faces pressure from leadership questions around Christopher Luxon and economic sentiment, while Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain competitive. The surging Opportunity Party, polling near or above the 5% threshold, adds uncertainty as a potential kingmaker that could enable or block majorities. These fluid dynamics among smaller parties and undecided voters sustain the close market pricing between the leading coalition options.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Labour + Green 34.0%
National + ACT + NZF 31%
Labour + Green + Maori 21%
Other 9.3%
$46,956 交易量
$46,956 交易量
2026-11-07
Labour
<1%
Labour + Green
34%
Labour + Maori
1%
Labour + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
21%
Labour + Green + NZF
2%
Labour + Maori + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
<1%
National
<1%
National + ACT
<1%
National + NZF
<1%
National + Maori
1%
National + ACT + NZF
31%
National + ACT + Maori
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + Labour
1%
Other
9%
Labour + Green 34.0%
National + ACT + NZF 31%
Labour + Green + Maori 21%
Other 9.3%
$46,956 交易量
$46,956 交易量
2026-11-07
Labour
$1,322 交易量
<1%
Labour + Green
$4,047 交易量
34%
Labour + Maori
$1,326 交易量
1%
Labour + NZF
$1,282 交易量
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
$4,759 交易量
21%
Labour + Green + NZF
$1,516 交易量
2%
Labour + Maori + NZF
$1,273 交易量
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
$1,845 交易量
<1%
National
$1,192 交易量
<1%
National + ACT
$1,904 交易量
<1%
National + NZF
$1,689 交易量
<1%
National + Maori
$1,267 交易量
1%
National + ACT + NZF
$6,600 交易量
31%
National + ACT + Maori
$1,277 交易量
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
$1,191 交易量
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
$1,373 交易量
<1%
National + Labour
$1,144 交易量
1%
Other
$11,949 交易量
9%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling shows New Zealand’s two major blocs locked in a tight contest ahead of the November 7 election under the MMP system, with National-led support hovering near 49-51% and Labour-led opposition around 41-42% in aggregates. The incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition faces pressure from leadership questions around Christopher Luxon and economic sentiment, while Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain competitive. The surging Opportunity Party, polling near or above the 5% threshold, adds uncertainty as a potential kingmaker that could enable or block majorities. These fluid dynamics among smaller parties and undecided voters sustain the close market pricing between the leading coalition options.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$46,956结束日期
2026-11-07市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling shows New Zealand’s two major blocs locked in a tight contest ahead of the November 7 election under the MMP system, with National-led support hovering near 49-51% and Labour-led opposition around 41-42% in aggregates. The incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition faces pressure from leadership questions around Christopher Luxon and economic sentiment, while Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain competitive. The surging Opportunity Party, polling near or above the 5% threshold, adds uncertainty as a potential kingmaker that could enable or block majorities. These fluid dynamics among smaller parties and undecided voters sustain the close market pricing between the leading coalition options.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
交易量
$46,956结束日期
2026-11-07市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows New Zealand’s two major blocs locked in a tight contest ahead of the November 7 election under the MMP system, with National-led support hovering near 49-51% and Labour-led opposition around 41-42% in aggregates. The incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition faces pressure from leadership questions around Christopher Luxon and economic sentiment, while Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori remain competitive. The surging Opportunity Party, polling near or above the 5% threshold, adds uncertainty as a potential kingmaker that could enable or block majorities. These fluid dynamics among smaller parties and undecided voters sustain the close market pricing between the leading coalition options.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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