Chiang Wan-an, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds a 65.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral race as traders weigh his established record on transportation safety, urban renewal thresholds, and housing policies against Puma Shen’s 35% share. Recent televised policy presentations and large-scale campaign events in mid-November have reinforced Chiang’s positioning as the frontrunner in a city with historical KMT support, while Shen’s emphasis on expanded public transit integration, child-rearing support, and participatory governance has narrowed gaps in some polls but not shifted market consensus. Minor candidates, including Kuo Hsi at 0.1%, register negligible odds ahead of the November 28 vote. The two-week timeline leaves limited scope for late developments to alter the current trader assessment of the primary contest.