Incumbent Chiang Wan-an of the Kuomindang holds a 64.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral race, ahead of Democratic Progressive Party challenger Puma Shen at 35.5%, with other candidates including Kuo Hsi near zero. Traders appear to price in Chiang’s incumbency advantage, established record on transportation and urban renewal, and traditional KMT strength in the capital ahead of the November 28 vote. Recent policy forums and competing campaign events—Chiang’s large-scale march highlighting infrastructure gains and Shen’s festival emphasizing public participation and resident support—have kept the contest in focus. Mixed polling, including some surveys showing Shen competitive or ahead and others favoring the incumbent by wider margins, contributes to the gap between market pricing and certain headline results, while minor-party entries remain marginal.