Recent polling averages show Democratic candidate Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in the ranked-choice voting general election, with results from October surveys placing her between 47% and 49% and Sullivan between 43% and 47% across multi-candidate ballots. This positioning has shaped trader consensus around Peltola as the frontrunner ahead of the November 3 contest. Alaska’s ranked-choice system introduces potential vote transfers from eliminated candidates that could influence final tallies, while Peltola’s strong fundraising and name recognition from prior House races have sustained momentum. A contentious October debate highlighted contrasting policy positions on energy and the economy. Other listed candidates remain marginal in both polls and market pricing.