**The GA-11 general election on November 3 features Republican nominee John Cowan facing Democrat Chris Harden in a district with a Cook PVI of R+12 and a 2024 Republican margin exceeding 30 points.** Barry Loudermilk’s retirement opened the seat, but Cowan secured the GOP nomination after finishing first in the May 19 primary (42.6%) and winning the June 16 runoff with 66%. Chris Harden won the Democratic primary outright with roughly 75%. An independent candidate is also on the ballot. These structural factors, combined with Georgia’s majority-vote rule that triggers a runoff only if no candidate reaches 50%, underpin the 69.7% implied probability that one candidate wins outright in November. The district’s consistent Republican tilt and recent nominee consolidation make a majority for the leading candidate the expected outcome, though a strong independent showing or unusually low Republican turnout could prevent it. No major developments in the past month have altered this baseline assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
0% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
0% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-11 House election.**The GA-11 general election on November 3 features Republican nominee John Cowan facing Democrat Chris Harden in a district with a Cook PVI of R+12 and a 2024 Republican margin exceeding 30 points.** Barry Loudermilk’s retirement opened the seat, but Cowan secured the GOP nomination after finishing first in the May 19 primary (42.6%) and winning the June 16 runoff with 66%. Chris Harden won the Democratic primary outright with roughly 75%. An independent candidate is also on the ballot.
These structural factors, combined with Georgia’s majority-vote rule that triggers a runoff only if no candidate reaches 50%, underpin the 69.7% implied probability that one candidate wins outright in November. The district’s consistent Republican tilt and recent nominee consolidation make a majority for the leading candidate the expected outcome, though a strong independent showing or unusually low Republican turnout could prevent it. No major developments in the past month have altered this baseline assessment.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-11 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-11 House election.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
交易量
$373结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-11 House election.**The GA-11 general election on November 3 features Republican nominee John Cowan facing Democrat Chris Harden in a district with a Cook PVI of R+12 and a 2024 Republican margin exceeding 30 points.** Barry Loudermilk’s retirement opened the seat, but Cowan secured the GOP nomination after finishing first in the May 19 primary (42.6%) and winning the June 16 runoff with 66%. Chris Harden won the Democratic primary outright with roughly 75%. An independent candidate is also on the ballot.
These structural factors, combined with Georgia’s majority-vote rule that triggers a runoff only if no candidate reaches 50%, underpin the 69.7% implied probability that one candidate wins outright in November. The district’s consistent Republican tilt and recent nominee consolidation make a majority for the leading candidate the expected outcome, though a strong independent showing or unusually low Republican turnout could prevent it. No major developments in the past month have altered this baseline assessment.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-11 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-11 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-11 House election.
交易量
$373结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The GA-11 general election on November 3 features Republican nominee John Cowan facing Democrat Chris Harden in a district with a Cook PVI of R+12 and a 2024 Republican margin exceeding 30 points.** Barry Loudermilk’s retirement opened the seat, but Cowan secured the GOP nomination after finishing first in the May 19 primary (42.6%) and winning the June 16 runoff with 66%. Chris Harden won the Democratic primary outright with roughly 75%. An independent candidate is also on the ballot. These structural factors, combined with Georgia’s majority-vote rule that triggers a runoff only if no candidate reaches 50%, underpin the 69.7% implied probability that one candidate wins outright in November. The district’s consistent Republican tilt and recent nominee consolidation make a majority for the leading candidate the expected outcome, though a strong independent showing or unusually low Republican turnout could prevent it. No major developments in the past month have altered this baseline assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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