Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,084 交易量
$11,084 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$11,084 交易量
$11,084 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,449 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,635 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,084结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,084结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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