Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a commanding position in California's 16th congressional district, a Silicon Valley stronghold spanning San Mateo and Santa Clara counties with a strong Democratic partisan lean. Trader consensus reflects this through the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, driven by the seat's history of lopsided margins, Liccardo's 2024 victory, and his incumbency advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the district as solid or safe Democratic. A Republican nominee could realistically advance only through an unusually strong primary performance or external shifts, though the district's voter registration and past results present significant structural barriers to an upset in the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$76,170 交易量
$76,170 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$76,170 交易量
$76,170 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$48,949 交易量
93%
共和党
$27,220 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a commanding position in California's 16th congressional district, a Silicon Valley stronghold spanning San Mateo and Santa Clara counties with a strong Democratic partisan lean. Trader consensus reflects this through the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, driven by the seat's history of lopsided margins, Liccardo's 2024 victory, and his incumbency advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the district as solid or safe Democratic. A Republican nominee could realistically advance only through an unusually strong primary performance or external shifts, though the district's voter registration and past results present significant structural barriers to an upset in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$76,170结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a commanding position in California's 16th congressional district, a Silicon Valley stronghold spanning San Mateo and Santa Clara counties with a strong Democratic partisan lean. Trader consensus reflects this through the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, driven by the seat's history of lopsided margins, Liccardo's 2024 victory, and his incumbency advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the district as solid or safe Democratic. A Republican nominee could realistically advance only through an unusually strong primary performance or external shifts, though the district's voter registration and past results present significant structural barriers to an upset in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$76,170结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a commanding position in California's 16th congressional district, a Silicon Valley stronghold spanning San Mateo and Santa Clara counties with a strong Democratic partisan lean. Trader consensus reflects this through the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party, driven by the seat's history of lopsided margins, Liccardo's 2024 victory, and his incumbency advantages ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the district as solid or safe Democratic. A Republican nominee could realistically advance only through an unusually strong primary performance or external shifts, though the district's voter registration and past results present significant structural barriers to an upset in the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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