Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,839 交易量
$26,839 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
81%
民主党
20%
$26,839 交易量
$26,839 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$13,712 交易量
81%
民主党
$13,127 交易量
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$26,839结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,839结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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