Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Abdul El-Sayed at 55.5% to win Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 4, driven by a May 1-7 MIRS poll showing him leading with 28% support among likely voters, ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens at 18% and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow at 17%, amid 38% undecided. El-Sayed's recent surge stems from progressive endorsements including Sen. Bernie Sanders at a May rally and appeal to younger voters under 40, plus grassroots fundraising without corporate PACs. Stevens benefits from a $5.3 million ad buy by the Center for Democratic Priorities defending her on immigration issues, while McMorrow's strong Q1 haul exceeding $3 million sustains her position in this open-seat contest replacing retiring Sen. Gary Peters. High undecideds and upcoming debates could shift dynamics.