Keiko Fujimori’s commanding first-round performance has anchored trader expectations for her June 7 runoff victory against Roberto Sánchez. With nearly all ballots tallied, Fujimori captured 17.2 percent while Sánchez edged out 12.0 percent, securing their places in the head-to-head contest amid a fragmented field. Recent runoff polling shows the race tightening to roughly even or a slight Fujimori advantage, tempered by elevated rejection rates for both candidates and lingering effects from Peru’s recent political instability. Sánchez’s endorsement from jailed former president Pedro Castillo has consolidated leftist support but reinforced perceptions of polarization that favor Fujimori’s broader congressional alliances and reduced anti-Fujimorismo sentiment following her father’s 2024 death. Traders weigh these structural factors and the short campaign window as tilting probabilities toward Fujimori.