Recent AtlasIntel polling released on September 17 shows Sergio Moro (PL) at 49.1% in the first round for Paraná governor, ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 28.2% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 18.6%, with Moro also favored in second-round simulations. This consistent double-digit advantage across multiple surveys, combined with Moro’s high name recognition as a sitting senator and his focus on anti-corruption and public security, has driven trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability for his victory. Sandro Alex, backed by incumbent Governor Ratinho Junior’s PSD coalition, holds the next highest price amid ongoing campaign events and legal disputes over advertising, while Requião Filho and minor candidates trail far behind with limited momentum ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于塞尔吉奥·莫罗 84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯 15%
Requião Filho <1%
拉斐尔·格雷卡 <1%
$171,563 交易量
$171,563 交易量
2026-10-04
塞尔吉奥·莫罗
84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯
15%
Requião Filho
<1%
拉斐尔·格雷卡
<1%
古托·席尔瓦
<1%
亚历山大·库里
<1%
贝托·里查
<1%
恩尼奥·维里
<1%
Luiz França
<1%
塞尔吉奥·莫罗 84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯 15%
Requião Filho <1%
拉斐尔·格雷卡 <1%
$171,563 交易量
$171,563 交易量
2026-10-04
塞尔吉奥·莫罗
$115,507 交易量
84%
桑德罗·亚历克斯
$15,573 交易量
15%
Requião Filho
$16,772 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·格雷卡
$3,403 交易量
<1%
古托·席尔瓦
$3,022 交易量
<1%
亚历山大·库里
$5,452 交易量
<1%
贝托·里查
$2,625 交易量
<1%
恩尼奥·维里
$3,396 交易量
<1%
Luiz França
$5,812 交易量
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel polling released on September 17 shows Sergio Moro (PL) at 49.1% in the first round for Paraná governor, ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 28.2% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 18.6%, with Moro also favored in second-round simulations. This consistent double-digit advantage across multiple surveys, combined with Moro’s high name recognition as a sitting senator and his focus on anti-corruption and public security, has driven trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability for his victory. Sandro Alex, backed by incumbent Governor Ratinho Junior’s PSD coalition, holds the next highest price amid ongoing campaign events and legal disputes over advertising, while Requião Filho and minor candidates trail far behind with limited momentum ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
交易量
$171,563结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETThe Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel polling released on September 17 shows Sergio Moro (PL) at 49.1% in the first round for Paraná governor, ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 28.2% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 18.6%, with Moro also favored in second-round simulations. This consistent double-digit advantage across multiple surveys, combined with Moro’s high name recognition as a sitting senator and his focus on anti-corruption and public security, has driven trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability for his victory. Sandro Alex, backed by incumbent Governor Ratinho Junior’s PSD coalition, holds the next highest price amid ongoing campaign events and legal disputes over advertising, while Requião Filho and minor candidates trail far behind with limited momentum ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$171,563结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETRecent AtlasIntel polling released on September 17 shows Sergio Moro (PL) at 49.1% in the first round for Paraná governor, ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 28.2% and Sandro Alex (PSD) at 18.6%, with Moro also favored in second-round simulations. This consistent double-digit advantage across multiple surveys, combined with Moro’s high name recognition as a sitting senator and his focus on anti-corruption and public security, has driven trader consensus toward an 83.5% implied probability for his victory. Sandro Alex, backed by incumbent Governor Ratinho Junior’s PSD coalition, holds the next highest price amid ongoing campaign events and legal disputes over advertising, while Requião Filho and minor candidates trail far behind with limited momentum ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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