Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrowing lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula’s intended vote share clustered between 36% and 44% across major firms. The contest remains competitive due to entrenched regional and ideological polarization, with Lula stronger in the Northeast and Flávio performing better in southern and center-western states. Third-place candidates, notably Augusto Cury (Avante), continue to draw support that could consolidate or fragment in the final weeks. Recent surveys indicate modest tightening in both first-round margins and runoff simulations amid ongoing Supreme Court proceedings and campaign messaging on security and economic conditions. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout patterns, or last-minute endorsements could push Lula’s share above or below the 41–44% range that currently anchors trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于44%及以上 40%
41-44% 40%
38-41% 9%
低于35% 4.5%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
低于35%
5%
35-38%
4%
38-41%
10%
41-44%
40%
44%及以上
40%
44%及以上 40%
41-44% 40%
38-41% 9%
低于35% 4.5%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
低于35%
$353 交易量
5%
35-38%
$486 交易量
4%
38-41%
$801 交易量
10%
41-44%
$1,016 交易量
40%
44%及以上
$1,371 交易量
40%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrowing lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula’s intended vote share clustered between 36% and 44% across major firms. The contest remains competitive due to entrenched regional and ideological polarization, with Lula stronger in the Northeast and Flávio performing better in southern and center-western states. Third-place candidates, notably Augusto Cury (Avante), continue to draw support that could consolidate or fragment in the final weeks. Recent surveys indicate modest tightening in both first-round margins and runoff simulations amid ongoing Supreme Court proceedings and campaign messaging on security and economic conditions. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout patterns, or last-minute endorsements could push Lula’s share above or below the 41–44% range that currently anchors trader consensus.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
交易量
$4,028结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrowing lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula’s intended vote share clustered between 36% and 44% across major firms. The contest remains competitive due to entrenched regional and ideological polarization, with Lula stronger in the Northeast and Flávio performing better in southern and center-western states. Third-place candidates, notably Augusto Cury (Avante), continue to draw support that could consolidate or fragment in the final weeks. Recent surveys indicate modest tightening in both first-round margins and runoff simulations amid ongoing Supreme Court proceedings and campaign messaging on security and economic conditions. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout patterns, or last-minute endorsements could push Lula’s share above or below the 41–44% range that currently anchors trader consensus.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$4,028结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRecent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding a narrowing lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula’s intended vote share clustered between 36% and 44% across major firms. The contest remains competitive due to entrenched regional and ideological polarization, with Lula stronger in the Northeast and Flávio performing better in southern and center-western states. Third-place candidates, notably Augusto Cury (Avante), continue to draw support that could consolidate or fragment in the final weeks. Recent surveys indicate modest tightening in both first-round margins and runoff simulations amid ongoing Supreme Court proceedings and campaign messaging on security and economic conditions. Late shifts in undecided voters, turnout patterns, or last-minute endorsements could push Lula’s share above or below the 41–44% range that currently anchors trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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