Trader consensus on Polymarket prices incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) slightly ahead at 52% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.5% for Bahia's October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, capturing the race's volatility amid mixed recent polls. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading 47.8% to 38.7% in a stimulated first-round scenario, with Jerônimo facing higher rejection at 37% despite 54% government approval; late April Quaest tied them at 41-37%. Jerônimo's edge stems from PT's regional dominance, alliances with over 350 mayors post-2024 municipals, and Lula's strong Bahia support. ACM Neto gains from urban appeal and momentum. Debates, national coattails, or scandals could tip the balance in this two-round contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 交易量
$13,694 交易量
2026-10-04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 交易量
$13,694 交易量
2026-10-04
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 交易量
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 交易量
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 交易量
<1%
João Roma
$966 交易量
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 交易量
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 交易量
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 交易量
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) slightly ahead at 52% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.5% for Bahia's October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, capturing the race's volatility amid mixed recent polls. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading 47.8% to 38.7% in a stimulated first-round scenario, with Jerônimo facing higher rejection at 37% despite 54% government approval; late April Quaest tied them at 41-37%. Jerônimo's edge stems from PT's regional dominance, alliances with over 350 mayors post-2024 municipals, and Lula's strong Bahia support. ACM Neto gains from urban appeal and momentum. Debates, national coattails, or scandals could tip the balance in this two-round contest.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$13,694结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) slightly ahead at 52% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.5% for Bahia's October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, capturing the race's volatility amid mixed recent polls. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading 47.8% to 38.7% in a stimulated first-round scenario, with Jerônimo facing higher rejection at 37% despite 54% government approval; late April Quaest tied them at 41-37%. Jerônimo's edge stems from PT's regional dominance, alliances with over 350 mayors post-2024 municipals, and Lula's strong Bahia support. ACM Neto gains from urban appeal and momentum. Debates, national coattails, or scandals could tip the balance in this two-round contest.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$13,694结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) slightly ahead at 52% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.5% for Bahia's October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election, capturing the race's volatility amid mixed recent polls. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading 47.8% to 38.7% in a stimulated first-round scenario, with Jerônimo facing higher rejection at 37% despite 54% government approval; late April Quaest tied them at 41-37%. Jerônimo's edge stems from PT's regional dominance, alliances with over 350 mayors post-2024 municipals, and Lula's strong Bahia support. ACM Neto gains from urban appeal and momentum. Debates, national coattails, or scandals could tip the balance in this two-round contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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