Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged money laundering, corruption, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with documents unsealed in mid-September. No formal charges or arrest have followed despite the probe's public confirmation. As a sitting senator and presidential candidate ahead of the October election, procedural protections, Senate privileges, and the compressed nine-day window to September 30 limit the likelihood of rapid escalation by federal police or the STF. Trader consensus at 95.8% for no charges or arrest by the deadline reflects these institutional and timeline barriers. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution, though such steps are uncommon in this timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
是
4% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged money laundering, corruption, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with documents unsealed in mid-September. No formal charges or arrest have followed despite the probe's public confirmation. As a sitting senator and presidential candidate ahead of the October election, procedural protections, Senate privileges, and the compressed nine-day window to September 30 limit the likelihood of rapid escalation by federal police or the STF. Trader consensus at 95.8% for no charges or arrest by the deadline reflects these institutional and timeline barriers. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution, though such steps are uncommon in this timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
交易量
$6,422结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged money laundering, corruption, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with documents unsealed in mid-September. No formal charges or arrest have followed despite the probe's public confirmation. As a sitting senator and presidential candidate ahead of the October election, procedural protections, Senate privileges, and the compressed nine-day window to September 30 limit the likelihood of rapid escalation by federal police or the STF. Trader consensus at 95.8% for no charges or arrest by the deadline reflects these institutional and timeline barriers. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution, though such steps are uncommon in this timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,422结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ETFlávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Court investigation opened in July into alleged money laundering, corruption, and related offenses tied to film financing from a disgraced banker, with documents unsealed in mid-September. No formal charges or arrest have followed despite the probe's public confirmation. As a sitting senator and presidential candidate ahead of the October election, procedural protections, Senate privileges, and the compressed nine-day window to September 30 limit the likelihood of rapid escalation by federal police or the STF. Trader consensus at 95.8% for no charges or arrest by the deadline reflects these institutional and timeline barriers. Late-breaking evidence or an expedited judicial order could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution, though such steps are uncommon in this timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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