Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by a two-week ceasefire extension in mid-April 2026 that has held amid Oman-mediated talks, with President Trump stating the seven-week air and naval conflict is "very close to over." U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade since late February inflicted significant damage without committing ground troops, amid nearly 400 U.S. casualties from Iranian retaliation and Senate votes on War Powers resolutions to curb escalation. Vice President Vance's upcoming Pakistan diplomacy signals de-escalation priorities, outweighing speculative buildup reports, as high occupation costs and no casus belli for boots-on-ground sustain low invasion odds despite ongoing tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$28,236,318 交易量
$28,236,318 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$28,236,318 交易量
$28,236,318 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by a two-week ceasefire extension in mid-April 2026 that has held amid Oman-mediated talks, with President Trump stating the seven-week air and naval conflict is "very close to over." U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade since late February inflicted significant damage without committing ground troops, amid nearly 400 U.S. casualties from Iranian retaliation and Senate votes on War Powers resolutions to curb escalation. Vice President Vance's upcoming Pakistan diplomacy signals de-escalation priorities, outweighing speculative buildup reports, as high occupation costs and no casus belli for boots-on-ground sustain low invasion odds despite ongoing tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$28,236,318结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by a two-week ceasefire extension in mid-April 2026 that has held amid Oman-mediated talks, with President Trump stating the seven-week air and naval conflict is "very close to over." U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade since late February inflicted significant damage without committing ground troops, amid nearly 400 U.S. casualties from Iranian retaliation and Senate votes on War Powers resolutions to curb escalation. Vice President Vance's upcoming Pakistan diplomacy signals de-escalation priorities, outweighing speculative buildup reports, as high occupation costs and no casus belli for boots-on-ground sustain low invasion odds despite ongoing tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$28,236,318结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by a two-week ceasefire extension in mid-April 2026 that has held amid Oman-mediated talks, with President Trump stating the seven-week air and naval conflict is "very close to over." U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz blockade since late February inflicted significant damage without committing ground troops, amid nearly 400 U.S. casualties from Iranian retaliation and Senate votes on War Powers resolutions to curb escalation. Vice President Vance's upcoming Pakistan diplomacy signals de-escalation priorities, outweighing speculative buildup reports, as high occupation costs and no casus belli for boots-on-ground sustain low invasion odds despite ongoing tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题