Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have featured repeated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military infrastructure, alongside Iranian retaliatory attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and regional targets. These operations remain confined to air, naval, and missile exchanges rather than ground maneuvers aimed at territorial control. Recent pauses in strikes, ongoing talks via intermediaries on maritime access and nuclear limits, and reports of depleted U.S. munitions stocks have reinforced trader views that escalation to a full invasion is improbable before the 2027 deadline. Logistical demands, high projected costs, and the absence of large-scale troop mobilization or congressional signals for occupation further support the 82.5% implied probability for no invasion.