Traders assign a 99.3% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership signals indicating active conflict preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for forcible unification and continues emphasizing coercive measures short of war, such as routine air and maritime patrols alongside blockade simulations. Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills, which mobilized reservists and tested supply resilience in August 2026, have not triggered escalation. High economic and military risks, combined with sustained regional diplomatic engagement, underpin the consensus. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen incidents, or abrupt policy changes within the narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$1,910,243 交易量
$1,910,243 交易量
2026-09-30
是
<1% 概率
$1,910,243 交易量
$1,910,243 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership signals indicating active conflict preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for forcible unification and continues emphasizing coercive measures short of war, such as routine air and maritime patrols alongside blockade simulations. Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills, which mobilized reservists and tested supply resilience in August 2026, have not triggered escalation. High economic and military risks, combined with sustained regional diplomatic engagement, underpin the consensus. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen incidents, or abrupt policy changes within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$1,910,243结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership signals indicating active conflict preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for forcible unification and continues emphasizing coercive measures short of war, such as routine air and maritime patrols alongside blockade simulations. Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills, which mobilized reservists and tested supply resilience in August 2026, have not triggered escalation. High economic and military risks, combined with sustained regional diplomatic engagement, underpin the consensus. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen incidents, or abrupt policy changes within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,910,243结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.3% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership signals indicating active conflict preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for forcible unification and continues emphasizing coercive measures short of war, such as routine air and maritime patrols alongside blockade simulations. Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills, which mobilized reservists and tested supply resilience in August 2026, have not triggered escalation. High economic and military risks, combined with sustained regional diplomatic engagement, underpin the consensus. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises, unforeseen incidents, or abrupt policy changes within the narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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