Traders assign a 95.5 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the continued absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization or air-sea exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing’s official statements continue to prioritize peaceful reunification while expanding economic and diplomatic channels with regional partners. Taipei sustains defensive readiness through U.S. arms deliveries and incremental military modernization, and multilateral deterrence efforts by Washington and allies have shown no recent disruption. The short remaining window reduces the scope for sudden escalation, though developments such as abrupt leadership shifts in Beijing, major cross-strait incidents, or changes in U.S. forward deployments could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.