Traders assign a 96.4% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the compressed timeline and absence of detectable large-scale naval, amphibious, or logistics mobilization by the People's Liberation Army. Beijing continues to favor gray-zone coercion, including routine air defense identification zone incursions and coast guard patrols, over direct military action, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments that prioritize political and economic pressure. Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang exercises and asymmetric capabilities, such as drone systems, further underscore defensive preparations without triggering acute crisis signals. While this skin-in-the-game consensus rests on current trajectories, low-probability shifts could arise from sudden escalation, major miscalculation, or unforeseen leadership decisions in the remaining months.