Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or amphibious invasion preparations amid ongoing U.S.-China diplomacy. President Trump's May 2026 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping focuses on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, trade tensions, and the Iran war, signaling de-escalation channels rather than confrontation. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm China lacks a fixed Taiwan timeline, with no commitment to 2027 action despite past rhetoric. Taiwan's defensive drills, including Javelin missile tests near Kinmen, underscore deterrence without provoking escalation, while routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait remain below invasion thresholds. Late developments like sudden blockades or sanctions shifts could alter odds, but current evidence prioritizes stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$23,356,221 交易量
$23,356,221 交易量
是
$23,356,221 交易量
$23,356,221 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or amphibious invasion preparations amid ongoing U.S.-China diplomacy. President Trump's May 2026 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping focuses on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, trade tensions, and the Iran war, signaling de-escalation channels rather than confrontation. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm China lacks a fixed Taiwan timeline, with no commitment to 2027 action despite past rhetoric. Taiwan's defensive drills, including Javelin missile tests near Kinmen, underscore deterrence without provoking escalation, while routine PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait remain below invasion thresholds. Late developments like sudden blockades or sanctions shifts could alter odds, but current evidence prioritizes stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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