NATO's Article 5 collective defense clause, requiring unanimous ally consensus on an armed attack against one member, has been invoked only once in history. As of mid-2026, ongoing Russia-Ukraine strikes, including recent exchanges near borders, have stayed below the threshold for direct attacks on NATO territory, with the July Ankara summit producing unified pledges of €70 billion in equipment and training for Ukraine through 2027 rather than escalation measures. Tensions over issues such as Greenland and Iran have prompted consultations under Article 4 but no invocation signals. With the market focused on the brief window through 2026, traders assign a 94.3% probability to "No" based on the contained nature of current conflicts, alliance deterrence posture, and lack of verifiable developments indicating imminent cross-border armed aggression against any member state.