Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, combined with continued airstrikes and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, sustain trader expectations against a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks planned for October, yet Russian officials described negotiations as far from complete and warned that new sanctions would complicate progress. Ukrainian leaders have rejected unilateral withdrawals without robust security guarantees, while both sides maintain military operations amid stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. These entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics underpin the 89.5% implied probability on "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
11% 概率
$2,775,871 交易量
$2,775,871 交易量
2026-12-31
是
11% 概率
$2,775,871 交易量
$2,775,871 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, combined with continued airstrikes and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, sustain trader expectations against a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks planned for October, yet Russian officials described negotiations as far from complete and warned that new sanctions would complicate progress. Ukrainian leaders have rejected unilateral withdrawals without robust security guarantees, while both sides maintain military operations amid stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. These entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics underpin the 89.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$2,775,871结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, combined with continued airstrikes and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, sustain trader expectations against a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks planned for October, yet Russian officials described negotiations as far from complete and warned that new sanctions would complicate progress. Ukrainian leaders have rejected unilateral withdrawals without robust security guarantees, while both sides maintain military operations amid stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. These entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics underpin the 89.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,775,871结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETOngoing territorial disputes, particularly Russia's insistence on additional Ukrainian land in Donetsk, combined with continued airstrikes and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, sustain trader expectations against a comprehensive peace agreement before 2027. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September 2026 revived trilateral talks planned for October, yet Russian officials described negotiations as far from complete and warned that new sanctions would complicate progress. Ukrainian leaders have rejected unilateral withdrawals without robust security guarantees, while both sides maintain military operations amid stalled earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. These entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics underpin the 89.5% implied probability on "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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