Persistent deadlock in U.S.-mediated trilateral negotiations, stalled since February 2026, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas, formal recognition of occupied territories, and limits on security guarantees, positions reiterated by the Kremlin on September 21 with no reported progress. Recent U.S. envoy visits in early September produced only an agreement to resume talks, potentially in October, amid continued Russian advances, mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, and Ukrainian rejection of unilateral concessions. These entrenched differences over sovereignty and ceasefire terms have shown little movement despite diplomatic efforts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
10% 概率
$2,776,827 交易量
$2,776,827 交易量
2026-12-31
是
10% 概率
$2,776,827 交易量
$2,776,827 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent deadlock in U.S.-mediated trilateral negotiations, stalled since February 2026, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas, formal recognition of occupied territories, and limits on security guarantees, positions reiterated by the Kremlin on September 21 with no reported progress. Recent U.S. envoy visits in early September produced only an agreement to resume talks, potentially in October, amid continued Russian advances, mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, and Ukrainian rejection of unilateral concessions. These entrenched differences over sovereignty and ceasefire terms have shown little movement despite diplomatic efforts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$2,776,827结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Persistent deadlock in U.S.-mediated trilateral negotiations, stalled since February 2026, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas, formal recognition of occupied territories, and limits on security guarantees, positions reiterated by the Kremlin on September 21 with no reported progress. Recent U.S. envoy visits in early September produced only an agreement to resume talks, potentially in October, amid continued Russian advances, mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, and Ukrainian rejection of unilateral concessions. These entrenched differences over sovereignty and ceasefire terms have shown little movement despite diplomatic efforts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,776,827结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETPersistent deadlock in U.S.-mediated trilateral negotiations, stalled since February 2026, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027. Russia maintains demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donetsk areas, formal recognition of occupied territories, and limits on security guarantees, positions reiterated by the Kremlin on September 21 with no reported progress. Recent U.S. envoy visits in early September produced only an agreement to resume talks, potentially in October, amid continued Russian advances, mutual strikes on energy infrastructure, and Ukrainian rejection of unilateral concessions. These entrenched differences over sovereignty and ceasefire terms have shown little movement despite diplomatic efforts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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