Recent mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during the U.S.-brokered three-day truce from May 9-11 underscore deep distrust between Ukraine and Russia, driving trader consensus toward a 66.5% implied probability against a peace deal before 2027. President Putin's May 9 remarks suggesting the conflict is "winding down" were offset by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's statement that comprehensive agreement remains "a very long way off," amid unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukraine's neutrality. Earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi stalled without breakthroughs, while Ukrainian forces halted Russian territorial gains in April—the first net loss for Moscow since 2024—sustaining military stalemate despite diplomatic pressures from the Trump administration for a June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$547,657 交易量
$547,657 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$547,657 交易量
$547,657 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during the U.S.-brokered three-day truce from May 9-11 underscore deep distrust between Ukraine and Russia, driving trader consensus toward a 66.5% implied probability against a peace deal before 2027. President Putin's May 9 remarks suggesting the conflict is "winding down" were offset by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's statement that comprehensive agreement remains "a very long way off," amid unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukraine's neutrality. Earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi stalled without breakthroughs, while Ukrainian forces halted Russian territorial gains in April—the first net loss for Moscow since 2024—sustaining military stalemate despite diplomatic pressures from the Trump administration for a June resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$547,657结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during the U.S.-brokered three-day truce from May 9-11 underscore deep distrust between Ukraine and Russia, driving trader consensus toward a 66.5% implied probability against a peace deal before 2027. President Putin's May 9 remarks suggesting the conflict is "winding down" were offset by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's statement that comprehensive agreement remains "a very long way off," amid unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukraine's neutrality. Earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi stalled without breakthroughs, while Ukrainian forces halted Russian territorial gains in April—the first net loss for Moscow since 2024—sustaining military stalemate despite diplomatic pressures from the Trump administration for a June resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$547,657结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during the U.S.-brokered three-day truce from May 9-11 underscore deep distrust between Ukraine and Russia, driving trader consensus toward a 66.5% implied probability against a peace deal before 2027. President Putin's May 9 remarks suggesting the conflict is "winding down" were offset by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's statement that comprehensive agreement remains "a very long way off," amid unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and Ukraine's neutrality. Earlier trilateral talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi stalled without breakthroughs, while Ukrainian forces halted Russian territorial gains in April—the first net loss for Moscow since 2024—sustaining military stalemate despite diplomatic pressures from the Trump administration for a June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题