Ukrainian forces' Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive north of Lyman, launched in May 2026 and continuing into late October, has reclaimed 150–277 square kilometers and multiple settlements, severing Russian salients and disrupting logistics toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defensive belt. This shift reversed months of Russian pressure and forced Moscow to redeploy units, including elements of the 1st Tank Army. As of early November 2026, Russian assaults near Lyman, Nadiia, and Kolodiazi remain limited and unsuccessful, with Ukrainian reports noting repelled attacks and ongoing drone and robotic operations. These developments sustain trader consensus on low near-term capture odds by year-end, though persistent Russian attempts to regain ground and broader Donbas objectives keep the sector contested.