Ongoing geopolitical tensions and sustained security incidents have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 3% of pre-crisis norms as of late September 2026, with daily commercial passages averaging just a handful versus the historical 70-plus range. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at 15-40 times baseline levels, combined with Iranian enforcement actions, rerouting via ship-to-ship transfers, and restricted corridor access, have rendered normal-volume operations uneconomic for most operators. Market-implied odds of 96% for "No" reflect trader consensus that these frictions will persist through October 31, consistent with seven months of disruption since February. Tail risks include an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or rapid enforcement of prior memoranda that could accelerate normalization, though recent data show no such momentum.