Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps claims of drone strikes on a US radar site in Bahrain and US denials, have prompted Iran to close its western airspace to all flights until November 17, 2026. This follows a fragile ceasefire since April after the February 2026 conflict that triggered a full closure. Heightened military alert, GPS jamming in monitored areas, and international advisories from EASA and the FAA continue to limit commercial overflights despite partial reopenings earlier in the year. The November 16 review of EASA conflict-zone bulletins and any US response to recent exchanges could influence further restrictions, while trader consensus reflects the low probability of a general nationwide closure by year-end absent major escalation.