Persistent geopolitical tensions since the February 2026 crisis have kept Strait of Hormuz vessel transits at roughly 7% of pre-crisis norms, with IMF PortWatch and AIS data showing daily averages near 6-9 against an 85 baseline, driving elevated Brent crude prices near $96 per barrel. Oil volume has partially recovered to 50-80% of prior levels through larger tankers, dark transits, Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers, and rerouting, yet physical ship counts remain suppressed by Iranian permitting requirements, reported attacks, and a U.S. blockade. Traders price low near-term normalization odds due to ongoing incidents and stalled UN diplomacy, with key catalysts including weekly IMF PortWatch releases, any FOMC or energy inventory data influencing risk appetite, and potential breakthroughs in Gulf security talks that could lift the 7-day moving average above the 60-transit threshold.