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icon for 2026年底伊朗领导人？
世界·中东

2026年底伊朗领导人？

icon for 2026年底伊朗领导人？
世界·中东

2026年底伊朗领导人？

莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 64.1%

礼萨·巴列维 7%

穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 5.0%

没有国家元首 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,273,743 交易量

莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 64.1%

礼萨·巴列维 7%

穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 5.0%

没有国家元首 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,273,743 交易量

莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊

$2,067,875 交易量

64%

礼萨·巴列维

$206,220 交易量

7%

穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫

$227,966 交易量

5%

没有国家元首

$460,072 交易量

3%

阿巴斯·阿拉格奇

$185,754 交易量

2%

哈桑·鲁哈尼

$325,530 交易量

1%

艾哈迈德·瓦希迪

$271,365 交易量

1%

阿里雷扎·阿拉菲

$833,426 交易量

1%

玛丽亚姆·拉贾维

$291,446 交易量

1%

哈桑·霍梅尼

$785,882 交易量

1%

戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔

$63,677 交易量

1%

马苏德·拉贾维

$48,234 交易量

1%

马苏德·佩泽什基安

$299,020 交易量

<1%

马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德

$111,646 交易量

<1%

穆罕默德·哈塔米

$420,949 交易量

<1%

萨德格·拉里贾尼

$195,597 交易量

<1%

纳维德·肖马利

$62,223 交易量

<1%

阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐

$87,111 交易量

<1%

穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里

$290,404 交易量

<1%

哈桑·沙里亚特马达里

$179,708 交易量

<1%

雷扎·皮尔扎德

$52,010 交易量

<1%

穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪

$100,091 交易量

<1%

赛义德·贾利利

$80,707 交易量

<1%

穆赫森·阿拉基

$64,445 交易量

<1%

赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安

$52,716 交易量

<1%

穆斯塔法·希吉里

$33,414 交易量

<1%

阿里·莫塔哈里

$84,538 交易量

<1%

萨德格·马赫苏利

$71,898 交易量

<1%

纳西尔·侯赛因尼

$39,291 交易量

<1%

艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼

$43,666 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a clear lead in trader assessments for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his unanimous selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February. His established networks within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij forces, along with years of behind-the-scenes influence in the Supreme Leader's office, provide institutional continuity amid ongoing regional conflict. Other listed contenders, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics such as Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, remain distant because they lack comparable internal backing or face constitutional and political barriers. The current market pricing reflects uncertainty over whether Mojtaba can maintain power through year-end amid potential escalation, internal challenges, or shifts in the Assembly of Experts' composition, though his rapid consolidation of authority after the transition has anchored the implied probability near two-thirds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$8,273,743
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds a clear lead in trader assessments for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his unanimous selection by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, immediately following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February. His established networks within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij forces, along with years of behind-the-scenes influence in the Supreme Leader's office, provide institutional continuity amid ongoing regional conflict. Other listed contenders, including Reza Pahlavi and various clerics such as Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, remain distant because they lack comparable internal backing or face constitutional and political barriers. The current market pricing reflects uncertainty over whether Mojtaba can maintain power through year-end amid potential escalation, internal challenges, or shifts in the Assembly of Experts' composition, though his rapid consolidation of authority after the transition has anchored the implied probability near two-thirds.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$8,273,743
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年底伊朗领导人？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 32 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊"，概率为 64%，其次是"礼萨·巴列维"，概率为 7%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 64¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 64%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年底伊朗领导人？"已产生 $8.3 million 的总交易量（自Mar 1, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年底伊朗领导人？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 32 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年底伊朗领导人？"的当前领先者是"莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊"，概率为 64%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 64%。紧随其后的结果是"礼萨·巴列维"，概率为 7%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年底伊朗领导人？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。