Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position reflects the Assembly of Experts’ decisive March 2026 selection of him as Supreme Leader immediately after his father’s assassination in late February during U.S.-Israel strikes. That emergency process, conducted amid active conflict and regime survival pressures, produced a rapid institutional consensus that elevated the son despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession. Subsequent months have seen no successful challenges or alternative appointments, with Mojtaba retaining formal authority even amid limited public visibility and health-related speculation. Other listed figures, including interim council members and reformist or opposition names, remain sidelined because the Assembly’s vote and security apparatus alignment have locked in continuity through year-end. Trader pricing therefore treats the post-assassination outcome as the durable baseline absent further upheaval before December 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 82.5%
没有国家元首 4.3%
礼萨·巴列维 3.4%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 2.5%
$38,640,510 交易量
$38,640,510 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
83%
没有国家元首
4%
礼萨·巴列维
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
2%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
1%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 82.5%
没有国家元首 4.3%
礼萨·巴列维 3.4%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 2.5%
$38,640,510 交易量
$38,640,510 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$6,044,149 交易量
83%
没有国家元首
$1,148,707 交易量
4%
礼萨·巴列维
$672,427 交易量
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$2,311,719 交易量
2%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$1,120,665 交易量
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$944,759 交易量
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$776,866 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$1,425,414 交易量
1%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$1,020,042 交易量
1%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$918,111 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$437,706 交易量
<1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$833,543 交易量
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$535,532 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$3,143,976 交易量
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$804,820 交易量
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$397,240 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$3,694,565 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$145,424 交易量
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
$211,396 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$199,217 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$836,257 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$433,381 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$3,346,996 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$239,262 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$384,772 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$5,192,121 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$281,793 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$254,606 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$306,702 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$341,482 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position reflects the Assembly of Experts’ decisive March 2026 selection of him as Supreme Leader immediately after his father’s assassination in late February during U.S.-Israel strikes. That emergency process, conducted amid active conflict and regime survival pressures, produced a rapid institutional consensus that elevated the son despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession. Subsequent months have seen no successful challenges or alternative appointments, with Mojtaba retaining formal authority even amid limited public visibility and health-related speculation. Other listed figures, including interim council members and reformist or opposition names, remain sidelined because the Assembly’s vote and security apparatus alignment have locked in continuity through year-end. Trader pricing therefore treats the post-assassination outcome as the durable baseline absent further upheaval before December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$38,640,510结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position reflects the Assembly of Experts’ decisive March 2026 selection of him as Supreme Leader immediately after his father’s assassination in late February during U.S.-Israel strikes. That emergency process, conducted amid active conflict and regime survival pressures, produced a rapid institutional consensus that elevated the son despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession. Subsequent months have seen no successful challenges or alternative appointments, with Mojtaba retaining formal authority even amid limited public visibility and health-related speculation. Other listed figures, including interim council members and reformist or opposition names, remain sidelined because the Assembly’s vote and security apparatus alignment have locked in continuity through year-end. Trader pricing therefore treats the post-assassination outcome as the durable baseline absent further upheaval before December 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$38,640,510结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant position reflects the Assembly of Experts’ decisive March 2026 selection of him as Supreme Leader immediately after his father’s assassination in late February during U.S.-Israel strikes. That emergency process, conducted amid active conflict and regime survival pressures, produced a rapid institutional consensus that elevated the son despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession. Subsequent months have seen no successful challenges or alternative appointments, with Mojtaba retaining formal authority even amid limited public visibility and health-related speculation. Other listed figures, including interim council members and reformist or opposition names, remain sidelined because the Assembly’s vote and security apparatus alignment have locked in continuity through year-end. Trader pricing therefore treats the post-assassination outcome as the durable baseline absent further upheaval before December 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题