Mojtaba Khamenei's 82% implied probability stems primarily from his unanimous selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 as Supreme Leader, immediately after Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February during the Iran conflict. This rapid institutional process, backed by IRGC influence and hardline factions prioritizing regime continuity over traditional clerical norms against hereditary succession, established him as the sitting leader. Ongoing questions about his health from wounds sustained in the same strikes have fueled limited speculation around alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim arrangements, yet no major shifts have materialized by mid-August. Traders price in high continuity through year-end absent further verified disruptions to the succession framework or leadership stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 82.2%
没有国家元首 4.4%
礼萨·巴列维 3.4%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 2.4%
$38,662,608 交易量
$38,662,608 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
82%
没有国家元首
4%
礼萨·巴列维
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
2%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
1%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
1%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 82.2%
没有国家元首 4.4%
礼萨·巴列维 3.4%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲 2.4%
$38,662,608 交易量
$38,662,608 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$6,050,064 交易量
82%
没有国家元首
$1,149,290 交易量
4%
礼萨·巴列维
$672,944 交易量
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$2,312,180 交易量
2%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$1,120,783 交易量
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$944,785 交易量
1%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$1,020,270 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$1,425,550 交易量
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$776,892 交易量
1%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$918,142 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$437,732 交易量
<1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$833,568 交易量
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$535,558 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$3,145,258 交易量
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$806,001 交易量
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$397,970 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$3,694,591 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$146,761 交易量
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
$214,706 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$199,243 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$836,283 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$434,050 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$3,347,820 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$239,287 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$388,272 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$5,192,146 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$281,818 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$254,631 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$306,727 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$342,427 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's 82% implied probability stems primarily from his unanimous selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 as Supreme Leader, immediately after Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February during the Iran conflict. This rapid institutional process, backed by IRGC influence and hardline factions prioritizing regime continuity over traditional clerical norms against hereditary succession, established him as the sitting leader. Ongoing questions about his health from wounds sustained in the same strikes have fueled limited speculation around alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim arrangements, yet no major shifts have materialized by mid-August. Traders price in high continuity through year-end absent further verified disruptions to the succession framework or leadership stability.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$38,662,608结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's 82% implied probability stems primarily from his unanimous selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 as Supreme Leader, immediately after Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February during the Iran conflict. This rapid institutional process, backed by IRGC influence and hardline factions prioritizing regime continuity over traditional clerical norms against hereditary succession, established him as the sitting leader. Ongoing questions about his health from wounds sustained in the same strikes have fueled limited speculation around alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim arrangements, yet no major shifts have materialized by mid-August. Traders price in high continuity through year-end absent further verified disruptions to the succession framework or leadership stability.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$38,662,608结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's 82% implied probability stems primarily from his unanimous selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 as Supreme Leader, immediately after Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February during the Iran conflict. This rapid institutional process, backed by IRGC influence and hardline factions prioritizing regime continuity over traditional clerical norms against hereditary succession, established him as the sitting leader. Ongoing questions about his health from wounds sustained in the same strikes have fueled limited speculation around alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or interim arrangements, yet no major shifts have materialized by mid-August. Traders price in high continuity through year-end absent further verified disruptions to the succession framework or leadership stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题