Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military assets and renewed Hormuz shipping disruptions in July, have kept these Persian Gulf outposts central to energy market volatility. Kharg alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in control a direct driver of global supply risks, tanker rates, and benchmark crude spreads. Traders price in persistent Iranian sovereignty amid ceasefire talks and naval posturing, with no verified seizures reported as of early August despite troop deployments and blockade enforcement. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on energy inflation pass-through, OPEC+ production adjustments, and any new maritime security pacts that could alter implied probabilities around Strait access and export infrastructure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-08-31
August 31
3%
September 30
12%
$2,110 交易量
August 31
$2,090 交易量
3%
September 30
$20 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military assets and renewed Hormuz shipping disruptions in July, have kept these Persian Gulf outposts central to energy market volatility. Kharg alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in control a direct driver of global supply risks, tanker rates, and benchmark crude spreads. Traders price in persistent Iranian sovereignty amid ceasefire talks and naval posturing, with no verified seizures reported as of early August despite troop deployments and blockade enforcement. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on energy inflation pass-through, OPEC+ production adjustments, and any new maritime security pacts that could alter implied probabilities around Strait access and export infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$2,110结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military assets and renewed Hormuz shipping disruptions in July, have kept these Persian Gulf outposts central to energy market volatility. Kharg alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in control a direct driver of global supply risks, tanker rates, and benchmark crude spreads. Traders price in persistent Iranian sovereignty amid ceasefire talks and naval posturing, with no verified seizures reported as of early August despite troop deployments and blockade enforcement. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on energy inflation pass-through, OPEC+ production adjustments, and any new maritime security pacts that could alter implied probabilities around Strait access and export infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,110结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran military exchanges since March 2026, including targeted strikes on Kharg Island's military assets and renewed Hormuz shipping disruptions in July, have kept these Persian Gulf outposts central to energy market volatility. Kharg alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in control a direct driver of global supply risks, tanker rates, and benchmark crude spreads. Traders price in persistent Iranian sovereignty amid ceasefire talks and naval posturing, with no verified seizures reported as of early August despite troop deployments and blockade enforcement. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC commentary on energy inflation pass-through, OPEC+ production adjustments, and any new maritime security pacts that could alter implied probabilities around Strait access and export infrastructure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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