Intensified Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel, peaking during May 4–10 with strikes injuring soldiers, have heightened risks of airspace closure amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire terms extended April 21. Ben Gurion Airport was placed on high alert May 4 for potential shutdown, while civil aviation officials warned May 12 of limited civilian slots due to US military basing. Though reopened post-February strikes on Iran, EASA's risk advisory persists through May 27, prompting airline suspensions; Wizz Air eyes May 28 resumption. Trader consensus weighs sporadic escalations against de-escalation signals like Saudi-Iran non-aggression talks, with low probabilities signaling barriers to full closure absent major retaliation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$827,872 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
28%
6月30日
41%
$827,872 交易量
May 31
$327,508 交易量
28%
6月30日
$5,129 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Intensified Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel, peaking during May 4–10 with strikes injuring soldiers, have heightened risks of airspace closure amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire terms extended April 21. Ben Gurion Airport was placed on high alert May 4 for potential shutdown, while civil aviation officials warned May 12 of limited civilian slots due to US military basing. Though reopened post-February strikes on Iran, EASA's risk advisory persists through May 27, prompting airline suspensions; Wizz Air eyes May 28 resumption. Trader consensus weighs sporadic escalations against de-escalation signals like Saudi-Iran non-aggression talks, with low probabilities signaling barriers to full closure absent major retaliation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
交易量
$827,872结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Intensified Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel, peaking during May 4–10 with strikes injuring soldiers, have heightened risks of airspace closure amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire terms extended April 21. Ben Gurion Airport was placed on high alert May 4 for potential shutdown, while civil aviation officials warned May 12 of limited civilian slots due to US military basing. Though reopened post-February strikes on Iran, EASA's risk advisory persists through May 27, prompting airline suspensions; Wizz Air eyes May 28 resumption. Trader consensus weighs sporadic escalations against de-escalation signals like Saudi-Iran non-aggression talks, with low probabilities signaling barriers to full closure absent major retaliation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$827,872结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Intensified Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel, peaking during May 4–10 with strikes injuring soldiers, have heightened risks of airspace closure amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire terms extended April 21. Ben Gurion Airport was placed on high alert May 4 for potential shutdown, while civil aviation officials warned May 12 of limited civilian slots due to US military basing. Though reopened post-February strikes on Iran, EASA's risk advisory persists through May 27, prompting airline suspensions; Wizz Air eyes May 28 resumption. Trader consensus weighs sporadic escalations against de-escalation signals like Saudi-Iran non-aggression talks, with low probabilities signaling barriers to full closure absent major retaliation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题