Recent attacks on UAE vessels attributed to Iran, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels, well below the pre-crisis baseline near 60–130 ships. These developments, including war-risk insurance spikes and AIS-dark routing, anchor trader sentiment on the 25-49 outcome at 60% implied probability, with the sub-25 bucket at 37% reflecting downside risks from further escalation. Elevated Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, while any Oman-mediated corridor remains the primary near-term catalyst that could modestly lift volumes before week-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25-49 59%
少于25 38%
50-74 3.5%
75-99 1.7%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
少于25
38%
25-49
59%
50-74
4%
75-99
2%
100+
1%
25-49 59%
少于25 38%
50-74 3.5%
75-99 1.7%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
少于25
$1,995 交易量
38%
25-49
$1,237 交易量
59%
50-74
$430 交易量
4%
75-99
$755 交易量
2%
100+
$353 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on UAE vessels attributed to Iran, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels, well below the pre-crisis baseline near 60–130 ships. These developments, including war-risk insurance spikes and AIS-dark routing, anchor trader sentiment on the 25-49 outcome at 60% implied probability, with the sub-25 bucket at 37% reflecting downside risks from further escalation. Elevated Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, while any Oman-mediated corridor remains the primary near-term catalyst that could modestly lift volumes before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$4,771结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent attacks on UAE vessels attributed to Iran, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels, well below the pre-crisis baseline near 60–130 ships. These developments, including war-risk insurance spikes and AIS-dark routing, anchor trader sentiment on the 25-49 outcome at 60% implied probability, with the sub-25 bucket at 37% reflecting downside risks from further escalation. Elevated Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, while any Oman-mediated corridor remains the primary near-term catalyst that could modestly lift volumes before week-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$4,771结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent attacks on UAE vessels attributed to Iran, combined with U.S. threats of an indefinite naval blockade and stalled diplomatic talks, have driven daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-teen levels, well below the pre-crisis baseline near 60–130 ships. These developments, including war-risk insurance spikes and AIS-dark routing, anchor trader sentiment on the 25-49 outcome at 60% implied probability, with the sub-25 bucket at 37% reflecting downside risks from further escalation. Elevated Brent crude near $88 underscores supply sensitivity, while any Oman-mediated corridor remains the primary near-term catalyst that could modestly lift volumes before week-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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