Ukraine's entrenched constitutional commitment to NATO integration and the alliance's repeated affirmations of an "irreversible" membership path at recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering with fresh security pledges, underpin the 98.8% trader consensus against any neutrality accord by August 31. Kyiv has rejected past proposals requiring non-alignment in exchange for ceasefires, while ongoing military assistance and interoperability efforts show no shift toward concessions on core security arrangements. The short remaining window and absence of active bilateral talks producing such terms further reinforce this positioning. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, sudden shifts in U.S. or allied leverage during negotiations, or unexpected battlefield developments could still alter trajectories before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$22,218 交易量
$22,218 交易量
2026-08-31
是
$22,218 交易量
$22,218 交易量
2026-08-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's entrenched constitutional commitment to NATO integration and the alliance's repeated affirmations of an "irreversible" membership path at recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering with fresh security pledges, underpin the 98.8% trader consensus against any neutrality accord by August 31. Kyiv has rejected past proposals requiring non-alignment in exchange for ceasefires, while ongoing military assistance and interoperability efforts show no shift toward concessions on core security arrangements. The short remaining window and absence of active bilateral talks producing such terms further reinforce this positioning. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, sudden shifts in U.S. or allied leverage during negotiations, or unexpected battlefield developments could still alter trajectories before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市场开放时间： Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
交易量
$22,218结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's entrenched constitutional commitment to NATO integration and the alliance's repeated affirmations of an "irreversible" membership path at recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering with fresh security pledges, underpin the 98.8% trader consensus against any neutrality accord by August 31. Kyiv has rejected past proposals requiring non-alignment in exchange for ceasefires, while ongoing military assistance and interoperability efforts show no shift toward concessions on core security arrangements. The short remaining window and absence of active bilateral talks producing such terms further reinforce this positioning. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, sudden shifts in U.S. or allied leverage during negotiations, or unexpected battlefield developments could still alter trajectories before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$22,218结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's entrenched constitutional commitment to NATO integration and the alliance's repeated affirmations of an "irreversible" membership path at recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering with fresh security pledges, underpin the 98.8% trader consensus against any neutrality accord by August 31. Kyiv has rejected past proposals requiring non-alignment in exchange for ceasefires, while ongoing military assistance and interoperability efforts show no shift toward concessions on core security arrangements. The short remaining window and absence of active bilateral talks producing such terms further reinforce this positioning. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, sudden shifts in U.S. or allied leverage during negotiations, or unexpected battlefield developments could still alter trajectories before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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