Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations where Moscow demands permanent neutrality but Kyiv has made no binding concession despite a December 2025 offer to drop its NATO bid for Western security guarantees. February 2026 US-mediated Geneva talks ended without breakthrough, and no further diplomatic progress has emerged by mid-May amid ongoing conflict. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated in April that membership is unlikely near-term due to opposition from allies like Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, yet Ukraine's constitution enshrines NATO aspirations—requiring a referendum for reversal—and deepened NATO cooperation continues without moratorium signals. Upcoming events like potential summits could shift dynamics, but frozen talks sustain trader skepticism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$98,811 交易量
$98,811 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$98,811 交易量
$98,811 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations where Moscow demands permanent neutrality but Kyiv has made no binding concession despite a December 2025 offer to drop its NATO bid for Western security guarantees. February 2026 US-mediated Geneva talks ended without breakthrough, and no further diplomatic progress has emerged by mid-May amid ongoing conflict. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated in April that membership is unlikely near-term due to opposition from allies like Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, yet Ukraine's constitution enshrines NATO aspirations—requiring a referendum for reversal—and deepened NATO cooperation continues without moratorium signals. Upcoming events like potential summits could shift dynamics, but frozen talks sustain trader skepticism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$98,811结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations where Moscow demands permanent neutrality but Kyiv has made no binding concession despite a December 2025 offer to drop its NATO bid for Western security guarantees. February 2026 US-mediated Geneva talks ended without breakthrough, and no further diplomatic progress has emerged by mid-May amid ongoing conflict. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated in April that membership is unlikely near-term due to opposition from allies like Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, yet Ukraine's constitution enshrines NATO aspirations—requiring a referendum for reversal—and deepened NATO cooperation continues without moratorium signals. Upcoming events like potential summits could shift dynamics, but frozen talks sustain trader skepticism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$98,811结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 81% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO before 2027, reflecting stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations where Moscow demands permanent neutrality but Kyiv has made no binding concession despite a December 2025 offer to drop its NATO bid for Western security guarantees. February 2026 US-mediated Geneva talks ended without breakthrough, and no further diplomatic progress has emerged by mid-May amid ongoing conflict. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated in April that membership is unlikely near-term due to opposition from allies like Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US, yet Ukraine's constitution enshrines NATO aspirations—requiring a referendum for reversal—and deepened NATO cooperation continues without moratorium signals. Upcoming events like potential summits could shift dynamics, but frozen talks sustain trader skepticism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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