Ukraine’s firm rejection of caps on its armed forces size continues to drive the 95% trader consensus against any binding agreement before 2027. Russia has pressed for severe limits, including proposals as low as 85,000 personnel, while earlier U.S.-brokered ideas around 600,000–800,000 yielded no finalized deal amid stalled talks. Through mid-2026, including Putin’s June stance conditioning negotiations on territorial concessions and neutrality commitments, no progress emerged. Ukraine has instead maintained roughly 900,000 active personnel, formed new long-range strike commands in July, and received sustained NATO military assistance without structural reductions. Russia has similarly expanded its authorized strength. Any shift would require a verifiable breakthrough in bilateral or mediated diplomacy within the remaining months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$111,952 交易量
$111,952 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$111,952 交易量
$111,952 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of caps on its armed forces size continues to drive the 95% trader consensus against any binding agreement before 2027. Russia has pressed for severe limits, including proposals as low as 85,000 personnel, while earlier U.S.-brokered ideas around 600,000–800,000 yielded no finalized deal amid stalled talks. Through mid-2026, including Putin’s June stance conditioning negotiations on territorial concessions and neutrality commitments, no progress emerged. Ukraine has instead maintained roughly 900,000 active personnel, formed new long-range strike commands in July, and received sustained NATO military assistance without structural reductions. Russia has similarly expanded its authorized strength. Any shift would require a verifiable breakthrough in bilateral or mediated diplomacy within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:10 PM ET
交易量
$111,952结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of caps on its armed forces size continues to drive the 95% trader consensus against any binding agreement before 2027. Russia has pressed for severe limits, including proposals as low as 85,000 personnel, while earlier U.S.-brokered ideas around 600,000–800,000 yielded no finalized deal amid stalled talks. Through mid-2026, including Putin’s June stance conditioning negotiations on territorial concessions and neutrality commitments, no progress emerged. Ukraine has instead maintained roughly 900,000 active personnel, formed new long-range strike commands in July, and received sustained NATO military assistance without structural reductions. Russia has similarly expanded its authorized strength. Any shift would require a verifiable breakthrough in bilateral or mediated diplomacy within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.
An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.
Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.
An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.
交易量
$111,952结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s firm rejection of caps on its armed forces size continues to drive the 95% trader consensus against any binding agreement before 2027. Russia has pressed for severe limits, including proposals as low as 85,000 personnel, while earlier U.S.-brokered ideas around 600,000–800,000 yielded no finalized deal amid stalled talks. Through mid-2026, including Putin’s June stance conditioning negotiations on territorial concessions and neutrality commitments, no progress emerged. Ukraine has instead maintained roughly 900,000 active personnel, formed new long-range strike commands in July, and received sustained NATO military assistance without structural reductions. Russia has similarly expanded its authorized strength. Any shift would require a verifiable breakthrough in bilateral or mediated diplomacy within the remaining months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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