Persistent disagreement over venue and preconditions continues to suppress prospects for a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, supporting the 64.5% trader consensus on no encounter by end-2027. Russia maintains that any bilateral summit requires Ukrainian concessions and should occur in Moscow, while Ukraine rejects that site along with Belarus and insists on a neutral third country. Recent U.S. diplomatic efforts under Trump have floated technical-level trilateral talks in the UAE and referenced the December 2026 G20 in Miami, yet Moscow has signaled skepticism and prioritized expert-level groundwork first. Past Abu Dhabi rounds stalled over territorial issues, and fresh battlefield escalations plus Russian election-related incidents have hardened positions without producing new leader-level commitments. These dynamics keep probabilities for specific locations such as Turkey, Finland, or other European sites in the mid-teens while underscoring the barriers to any resolution window.