Ongoing martial law in Ukraine, extended through August 2026 with parliamentary approval, continues to bar presidential elections under the constitution, reinforcing trader consensus that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will remain in office. The most recent major diplomatic development—a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange confirmed by Zelenskyy on May 8—has sustained active negotiations without triggering leadership changes or domestic challenges. Zelenskyy’s public statements tying any vote to prior security guarantees and a stable ceasefire align with institutional continuity, while battlefield developments such as Russian territorial gains and Ukrainian long-range strikes have not shifted internal political dynamics. These factors, combined with Zelenskyy’s sustained public role in bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, underpin the 84.5 percent implied probability that he serves through year-end.