US-brokered trilateral talks scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi mark the first direct Russia-Ukraine-US negotiations since February, with security guarantees and post-war architecture as the central agenda items. Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from annexed regions and Ukrainian insistence on robust protections against future aggression remain far apart, even as both sides continue long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. Recent signals from US President Trump on possible territorial adjustments and a localized October ceasefire in Oleshky have not narrowed core differences. Trader sentiment on near-term ceasefire probabilities reflects these diplomatic openings alongside the lack of verified concessions or de-escalation on the battlefield.