Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations that no agreement will materialize before 2027. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that any withdrawal from remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donbas would require parliamentary approval and a national referendum, both of which face strong domestic opposition and constitutional hurdles. U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere earlier this year stalled precisely on Russia’s insistence that Ukraine formally cede the four claimed oblasts, while Kyiv continues to demand full restoration of its 1991 borders plus security guarantees. With negotiations showing no breakthrough and both sides holding to maximalist positions, the market reflects the view that significant territorial compromise is unlikely within the current timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$571,818 交易量
$571,818 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$571,818 交易量
$571,818 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations that no agreement will materialize before 2027. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that any withdrawal from remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donbas would require parliamentary approval and a national referendum, both of which face strong domestic opposition and constitutional hurdles. U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere earlier this year stalled precisely on Russia’s insistence that Ukraine formally cede the four claimed oblasts, while Kyiv continues to demand full restoration of its 1991 borders plus security guarantees. With negotiations showing no breakthrough and both sides holding to maximalist positions, the market reflects the view that significant territorial compromise is unlikely within the current timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
交易量
$571,818结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations that no agreement will materialize before 2027. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that any withdrawal from remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donbas would require parliamentary approval and a national referendum, both of which face strong domestic opposition and constitutional hurdles. U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere earlier this year stalled precisely on Russia’s insistence that Ukraine formally cede the four claimed oblasts, while Kyiv continues to demand full restoration of its 1991 borders plus security guarantees. With negotiations showing no breakthrough and both sides holding to maximalist positions, the market reflects the view that significant territorial compromise is unlikely within the current timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$571,818结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s firm rejection of territorial concessions remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations that no agreement will materialize before 2027. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that any withdrawal from remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donbas would require parliamentary approval and a national referendum, both of which face strong domestic opposition and constitutional hurdles. U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere earlier this year stalled precisely on Russia’s insistence that Ukraine formally cede the four claimed oblasts, while Kyiv continues to demand full restoration of its 1991 borders plus security guarantees. With negotiations showing no breakthrough and both sides holding to maximalist positions, the market reflects the view that significant territorial compromise is unlikely within the current timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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