Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability against Russia launching a new invasion in 2026, driven by the ongoing strategic stalemate in its Ukraine war, where both sides reported battlefield clashes and drone strikes despite a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 that quickly unraveled amid mutual violation accusations. Russia's estimated 1.2 million casualties since 2022, coupled with deepening military commitments in Ukraine—including Belarusian support—have depleted resources, leaving no verifiable signs of troop buildups or operational plans targeting Moldova, the Baltics, Georgia, or Kazakhstan. NATO deterrence and hybrid tactics like Baltic provocations further dampen escalation risks, though a major Ukraine breakthrough or diplomatic shifts could alter odds before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$163,801 交易量
$163,801 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$163,801 交易量
$163,801 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability against Russia launching a new invasion in 2026, driven by the ongoing strategic stalemate in its Ukraine war, where both sides reported battlefield clashes and drone strikes despite a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 that quickly unraveled amid mutual violation accusations. Russia's estimated 1.2 million casualties since 2022, coupled with deepening military commitments in Ukraine—including Belarusian support—have depleted resources, leaving no verifiable signs of troop buildups or operational plans targeting Moldova, the Baltics, Georgia, or Kazakhstan. NATO deterrence and hybrid tactics like Baltic provocations further dampen escalation risks, though a major Ukraine breakthrough or diplomatic shifts could alter odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$163,801结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability against Russia launching a new invasion in 2026, driven by the ongoing strategic stalemate in its Ukraine war, where both sides reported battlefield clashes and drone strikes despite a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 that quickly unraveled amid mutual violation accusations. Russia's estimated 1.2 million casualties since 2022, coupled with deepening military commitments in Ukraine—including Belarusian support—have depleted resources, leaving no verifiable signs of troop buildups or operational plans targeting Moldova, the Baltics, Georgia, or Kazakhstan. NATO deterrence and hybrid tactics like Baltic provocations further dampen escalation risks, though a major Ukraine breakthrough or diplomatic shifts could alter odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$163,801结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88.5% implied probability against Russia launching a new invasion in 2026, driven by the ongoing strategic stalemate in its Ukraine war, where both sides reported battlefield clashes and drone strikes despite a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9-11 that quickly unraveled amid mutual violation accusations. Russia's estimated 1.2 million casualties since 2022, coupled with deepening military commitments in Ukraine—including Belarusian support—have depleted resources, leaving no verifiable signs of troop buildups or operational plans targeting Moldova, the Baltics, Georgia, or Kazakhstan. NATO deterrence and hybrid tactics like Baltic provocations further dampen escalation risks, though a major Ukraine breakthrough or diplomatic shifts could alter odds before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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