Russia's ongoing campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with the 2026 spring-summer offensive producing minimal territorial gains—often under 40 square kilometers per month—and net losses in some reporting periods amid high casualties and Ukrainian drone-enabled defenses. Kremlin statements through August 2026 have reiterated demands for Ukraine's full capitulation, rejecting even limited ceasefire proposals while Baltic and NATO intelligence assessments note only hybrid risks such as drone incursions or sabotage rather than conventional preparations for new fronts. This sustained commitment to the existing theater, combined with Russia's constrained force regeneration, underpins trader expectations that Moscow will not launch a fresh invasion of another country before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$397,866 交易量
$397,866 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$397,866 交易量
$397,866 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with the 2026 spring-summer offensive producing minimal territorial gains—often under 40 square kilometers per month—and net losses in some reporting periods amid high casualties and Ukrainian drone-enabled defenses. Kremlin statements through August 2026 have reiterated demands for Ukraine's full capitulation, rejecting even limited ceasefire proposals while Baltic and NATO intelligence assessments note only hybrid risks such as drone incursions or sabotage rather than conventional preparations for new fronts. This sustained commitment to the existing theater, combined with Russia's constrained force regeneration, underpins trader expectations that Moscow will not launch a fresh invasion of another country before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$397,866结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with the 2026 spring-summer offensive producing minimal territorial gains—often under 40 square kilometers per month—and net losses in some reporting periods amid high casualties and Ukrainian drone-enabled defenses. Kremlin statements through August 2026 have reiterated demands for Ukraine's full capitulation, rejecting even limited ceasefire proposals while Baltic and NATO intelligence assessments note only hybrid risks such as drone incursions or sabotage rather than conventional preparations for new fronts. This sustained commitment to the existing theater, combined with Russia's constrained force regeneration, underpins trader expectations that Moscow will not launch a fresh invasion of another country before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$397,866结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with the 2026 spring-summer offensive producing minimal territorial gains—often under 40 square kilometers per month—and net losses in some reporting periods amid high casualties and Ukrainian drone-enabled defenses. Kremlin statements through August 2026 have reiterated demands for Ukraine's full capitulation, rejecting even limited ceasefire proposals while Baltic and NATO intelligence assessments note only hybrid risks such as drone incursions or sabotage rather than conventional preparations for new fronts. This sustained commitment to the existing theater, combined with Russia's constrained force regeneration, underpins trader expectations that Moscow will not launch a fresh invasion of another country before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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