Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb substantial resources, limiting capacity for additional conventional operations elsewhere in 2026. President Putin stated on October 1 that Moscow has no plans to attack European countries and seeks peaceful coexistence, while issuing defensive warnings over potential threats to Kaliningrad amid NATO exercises. Recent intelligence assessments note intensified Russian hybrid activity such as drones and sabotage but assess low likelihood of limited military strikes on NATO states. These factors, combined with NATO deterrence and the economic toll of the Ukraine conflict, underpin trader consensus favoring no new invasion before year-end.