Traders assign a 96% probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 due to the countries' decades-long security partnership, including Colombia's status as a major non-NATO ally and extensive counternarcotics cooperation. Early 2026 tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela prompted sharp rhetoric from President Trump regarding drug flows and from President Petro over sovereignty concerns, yet a direct phone call and subsequent meeting produced visible de-escalation. Colombia's August 2026 presidential transition to a successor viewed as more aligned with U.S. priorities has further reduced friction points. An invasion would mark an unprecedented break with a democratic partner, requiring major shifts in diplomacy or regional security conditions that remain absent. Late-year developments in drug policy disputes or bilateral disputes could still alter trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$148,838 交易量
$148,838 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$148,838 交易量
$148,838 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 96% probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 due to the countries' decades-long security partnership, including Colombia's status as a major non-NATO ally and extensive counternarcotics cooperation. Early 2026 tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela prompted sharp rhetoric from President Trump regarding drug flows and from President Petro over sovereignty concerns, yet a direct phone call and subsequent meeting produced visible de-escalation. Colombia's August 2026 presidential transition to a successor viewed as more aligned with U.S. priorities has further reduced friction points. An invasion would mark an unprecedented break with a democratic partner, requiring major shifts in diplomacy or regional security conditions that remain absent. Late-year developments in drug policy disputes or bilateral disputes could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
交易量
$148,838结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 96% probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 due to the countries' decades-long security partnership, including Colombia's status as a major non-NATO ally and extensive counternarcotics cooperation. Early 2026 tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela prompted sharp rhetoric from President Trump regarding drug flows and from President Petro over sovereignty concerns, yet a direct phone call and subsequent meeting produced visible de-escalation. Colombia's August 2026 presidential transition to a successor viewed as more aligned with U.S. priorities has further reduced friction points. An invasion would mark an unprecedented break with a democratic partner, requiring major shifts in diplomacy or regional security conditions that remain absent. Late-year developments in drug policy disputes or bilateral disputes could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$148,838结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96% probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 due to the countries' decades-long security partnership, including Colombia's status as a major non-NATO ally and extensive counternarcotics cooperation. Early 2026 tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela prompted sharp rhetoric from President Trump regarding drug flows and from President Petro over sovereignty concerns, yet a direct phone call and subsequent meeting produced visible de-escalation. Colombia's August 2026 presidential transition to a successor viewed as more aligned with U.S. priorities has further reduced friction points. An invasion would mark an unprecedented break with a democratic partner, requiring major shifts in diplomacy or regional security conditions that remain absent. Late-year developments in drug policy disputes or bilateral disputes could still alter trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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