Elon Musk’s typical daily posting volume and the weekend timing of August 15–17 anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range, which commands 51% implied probability. Recent X activity shows steady but moderate engagement with Grok updates and company news rather than controversy-driven spikes, aligning with documented weekend averages near 11 posts per day. The sub-40 bucket at 35% reflects the risk of lighter output over the three-day stretch, while higher brackets remain thin as traders discount the chance of sustained weekday-level volume without major political or product announcements. Precedent from similar short-window markets reinforces this distribution, with momentum tied to the absence of catalysts that historically push Musk above 30 daily posts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 51%
少于40 35%
65-89 14%
90-114 2.7%
最新
$66,055 交易量
最新
$66,055 交易量
2026-08-17
少于40
35%
40-64
51%
65-89
14%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
少于40 35%
65-89 14%
90-114 2.7%
最新
$66,055 交易量
最新
$66,055 交易量
2026-08-17
少于40
$8,629 交易量
35%
40-64
$6,646 交易量
51%
65-89
$7,077 交易量
14%
90-114
$10,106 交易量
3%
115-139
$7,797 交易量
1%
140-164
$6,982 交易量
<1%
165-189
$6,997 交易量
<1%
190-214
$3,149 交易量
<1%
215-239
$4,776 交易量
<1%
240+
$3,896 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s typical daily posting volume and the weekend timing of August 15–17 anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range, which commands 51% implied probability. Recent X activity shows steady but moderate engagement with Grok updates and company news rather than controversy-driven spikes, aligning with documented weekend averages near 11 posts per day. The sub-40 bucket at 35% reflects the risk of lighter output over the three-day stretch, while higher brackets remain thin as traders discount the chance of sustained weekday-level volume without major political or product announcements. Precedent from similar short-window markets reinforces this distribution, with momentum tied to the absence of catalysts that historically push Musk above 30 daily posts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$66,055结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s typical daily posting volume and the weekend timing of August 15–17 anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range, which commands 51% implied probability. Recent X activity shows steady but moderate engagement with Grok updates and company news rather than controversy-driven spikes, aligning with documented weekend averages near 11 posts per day. The sub-40 bucket at 35% reflects the risk of lighter output over the three-day stretch, while higher brackets remain thin as traders discount the chance of sustained weekday-level volume without major political or product announcements. Precedent from similar short-window markets reinforces this distribution, with momentum tied to the absence of catalysts that historically push Musk above 30 daily posts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$66,055结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s typical daily posting volume and the weekend timing of August 15–17 anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 tweet range, which commands 51% implied probability. Recent X activity shows steady but moderate engagement with Grok updates and company news rather than controversy-driven spikes, aligning with documented weekend averages near 11 posts per day. The sub-40 bucket at 35% reflects the risk of lighter output over the three-day stretch, while higher brackets remain thin as traders discount the chance of sustained weekday-level volume without major political or product announcements. Precedent from similar short-window markets reinforces this distribution, with momentum tied to the absence of catalysts that historically push Musk above 30 daily posts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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