Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside solid payroll trends and core inflation readings near 2.9%, support the 56% probability for unchanged policy and 38.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcomes. Limited pricing for cuts reflects the elevated bar for easing until clearer disinflation emerges, with upcoming July data releases likely to influence any shifts in these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No change 63%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 4.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$896,838 交易量
$896,838 交易量
2026-09-16
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
63%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 63%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 4.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$896,838 交易量
$896,838 交易量
2026-09-16
50+ bps decrease
$185,785 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$143,481 交易量
4%
No change
$231,447 交易量
63%
25 bps increase
$201,281 交易量
31%
50+ bps increase
$134,844 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside solid payroll trends and core inflation readings near 2.9%, support the 56% probability for unchanged policy and 38.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcomes. Limited pricing for cuts reflects the elevated bar for easing until clearer disinflation emerges, with upcoming July data releases likely to influence any shifts in these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$896,838结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside solid payroll trends and core inflation readings near 2.9%, support the 56% probability for unchanged policy and 38.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcomes. Limited pricing for cuts reflects the elevated bar for easing until clearer disinflation emerges, with upcoming July data releases likely to influence any shifts in these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$896,838结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside solid payroll trends and core inflation readings near 2.9%, support the 56% probability for unchanged policy and 38.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcomes. Limited pricing for cuts reflects the elevated bar for easing until clearer disinflation emerges, with upcoming July data releases likely to influence any shifts in these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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