Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change or a further increase at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively, keeping price pressures above the 2% goal and prompting officials to mark up near-term inflation forecasts. Updated Summary of Economic Projections show most participants expecting one additional hike in 2026 before holding the policy rate steady through 2027. This hawkish shift, reinforced by Chair commentary and a stronger labor market backdrop, has elevated the implied probability of unchanged or higher rates while limiting odds of cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include October and December 2026 CPI releases plus the December FOMC meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No change 57%
加息25个基点 31%
25 bps decrease 10%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$83,691 交易量
$83,691 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
57%
加息25个基点
31%
上调50个基点以上
2%
No change 57%
加息25个基点 31%
25 bps decrease 10%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$83,691 交易量
$83,691 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
$14,114 交易量
5%
25 bps decrease
$19,606 交易量
10%
No change
$21,742 交易量
57%
加息25个基点
$22,706 交易量
31%
上调50个基点以上
$5,523 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change or a further increase at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively, keeping price pressures above the 2% goal and prompting officials to mark up near-term inflation forecasts. Updated Summary of Economic Projections show most participants expecting one additional hike in 2026 before holding the policy rate steady through 2027. This hawkish shift, reinforced by Chair commentary and a stronger labor market backdrop, has elevated the implied probability of unchanged or higher rates while limiting odds of cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include October and December 2026 CPI releases plus the December FOMC meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
交易量
$83,691结束日期
2027-01-27市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change or a further increase at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively, keeping price pressures above the 2% goal and prompting officials to mark up near-term inflation forecasts. Updated Summary of Economic Projections show most participants expecting one additional hike in 2026 before holding the policy rate steady through 2027. This hawkish shift, reinforced by Chair commentary and a stronger labor market backdrop, has elevated the implied probability of unchanged or higher rates while limiting odds of cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include October and December 2026 CPI releases plus the December FOMC meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$83,691结束日期
2027-01-27市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRecent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change or a further increase at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.3% and 2.4%, respectively, keeping price pressures above the 2% goal and prompting officials to mark up near-term inflation forecasts. Updated Summary of Economic Projections show most participants expecting one additional hike in 2026 before holding the policy rate steady through 2027. This hawkish shift, reinforced by Chair commentary and a stronger labor market backdrop, has elevated the implied probability of unchanged or higher rates while limiting odds of cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include October and December 2026 CPI releases plus the December FOMC meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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