Strong August 2026 labor market data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC to 55.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and resilient economic activity have shifted trader consensus toward further tightening to address supply-driven inflation pressures. The 39.5% probability of no change incorporates uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and potential moderation in energy prices, while low odds on cuts reflect the data-dependent path and limited downside risks priced into Treasury yields.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25 bps increase 56%
无变化 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,737 交易量
$687,737 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
无变化
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
无变化 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,737 交易量
$687,737 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 交易量
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,970 交易量
3%
无变化
$136,748 交易量
40%
25 bps increase
$187,409 交易量
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 交易量
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August 2026 labor market data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC to 55.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and resilient economic activity have shifted trader consensus toward further tightening to address supply-driven inflation pressures. The 39.5% probability of no change incorporates uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and potential moderation in energy prices, while low odds on cuts reflect the data-dependent path and limited downside risks priced into Treasury yields.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$687,737结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August 2026 labor market data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC to 55.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and resilient economic activity have shifted trader consensus toward further tightening to address supply-driven inflation pressures. The 39.5% probability of no change incorporates uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and potential moderation in energy prices, while low odds on cuts reflect the data-dependent path and limited downside risks priced into Treasury yields.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$687,737结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETStrong August 2026 labor market data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, alongside headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, have elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC to 55.5%. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, and resilient economic activity have shifted trader consensus toward further tightening to address supply-driven inflation pressures. The 39.5% probability of no change incorporates uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and potential moderation in energy prices, while low odds on cuts reflect the data-dependent path and limited downside risks priced into Treasury yields.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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