The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 98% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Prosecutors presented no evidence of wrongdoing related to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations or congressional testimony, leading a federal judge to quash subpoenas for lack of substantiation. Powell’s transition from Fed chair in May 2026 to his remaining governor role through 2028 has further reduced exposure to policy-related scrutiny. While tail risks such as renewed political targeting or unrelated matters cannot be entirely ruled out in a polarized environment, the absence of active proceedings and judicial findings of insufficient evidence anchor trader consensus on a near-certain outcome.