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经济·美联储利率

杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？

icon for 杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？
经济·美联储利率

杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？

是

4% 概率
Polymarket
最新

是

4% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,538
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,538
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年前会入狱吗？"，概率为 4%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 4¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 4%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Jan 12, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？"的当前领先者是"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年前会入狱吗？"，仅有 4%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"杰罗姆·鲍威尔在2027年之前入狱？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。