Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
$717,409 交易量
$717,409 交易量
2026-09-16
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
$717,409 交易量
$717,409 交易量
2026-09-16
Pause–Pause–Pause
$286,408 交易量
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$67,198 交易量
1%
Other
$307,927 交易量
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$717,409结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$717,409结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year alongside supply disruptions from Middle East tensions have kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings, supporting the 59.5% market-implied probability of unchanged policy across the June-July-September sequence. The July decision featured a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting internal divisions and prompting futures markets to price elevated odds of a September move higher even as June CPI softened modestly. Resilient labor market data, solid GDP expansion, and the absence of clear disinflation momentum have reinforced trader consensus for a hold through the September 15-16 meeting, though the upcoming August CPI release and any escalation in geopolitical pressures remain key swing factors that could shift the path embedded in the 40.5% "Other" bucket.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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