Elevated inflation and a divided July FOMC statement, where the Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a hike, anchor trader sentiment for the Jul–Oct sequence. June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% and core at 2.6%, aided by lower energy prices after Middle East developments, yet remaining above the 2% target amid resilient growth and stable labor conditions. These factors support the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause while elevating “Other” outcomes at 54.5%, reflecting expectations of possible hikes or mixed decisions. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, plus upcoming CPI releases and Jackson Hole, remain key catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 55%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$664,214 交易量
$664,214 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
55%
Other 55%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$664,214 交易量
$664,214 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$224,173 交易量
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$51,057 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,933 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,467 交易量
1%
Other
$290,097 交易量
55%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation and a divided July FOMC statement, where the Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a hike, anchor trader sentiment for the Jul–Oct sequence. June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% and core at 2.6%, aided by lower energy prices after Middle East developments, yet remaining above the 2% target amid resilient growth and stable labor conditions. These factors support the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause while elevating “Other” outcomes at 54.5%, reflecting expectations of possible hikes or mixed decisions. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, plus upcoming CPI releases and Jackson Hole, remain key catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$664,214结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation and a divided July FOMC statement, where the Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a hike, anchor trader sentiment for the Jul–Oct sequence. June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% and core at 2.6%, aided by lower energy prices after Middle East developments, yet remaining above the 2% target amid resilient growth and stable labor conditions. These factors support the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause while elevating “Other” outcomes at 54.5%, reflecting expectations of possible hikes or mixed decisions. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, plus upcoming CPI releases and Jackson Hole, remain key catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$664,214结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation and a divided July FOMC statement, where the Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of a hike, anchor trader sentiment for the Jul–Oct sequence. June CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% and core at 2.6%, aided by lower energy prices after Middle East developments, yet remaining above the 2% target amid resilient growth and stable labor conditions. These factors support the 37% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause while elevating “Other” outcomes at 54.5%, reflecting expectations of possible hikes or mixed decisions. The September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, plus upcoming CPI releases and Jackson Hole, remain key catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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