Recent moderation in headline inflation to 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026, alongside a soft June jobs report showing just 57,000 payroll gains, has reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the October 27-28 meeting. The July FOMC decision, passed 9-3 with hawkish dissents, highlighted internal divisions but left policy unchanged pending further data. Elevated core pressures and geopolitical energy risks have lifted the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 22.5%, yet the market-implied path still favors patience until after the August CPI release and September meeting. Upcoming July employment and inflation prints, plus Jackson Hole, remain key swing factors for October pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 69%
加息25个基点 23%
下调25个基点 5%
加息50个基点以上 2.5%
$456,455 交易量
$456,455 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
1%
下调25个基点
5%
无变化
69%
加息25个基点
23%
加息50个基点以上
2%
无变化 69%
加息25个基点 23%
下调25个基点 5%
加息50个基点以上 2.5%
$456,455 交易量
$456,455 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
$100,226 交易量
1%
下调25个基点
$103,384 交易量
5%
无变化
$102,537 交易量
69%
加息25个基点
$107,665 交易量
23%
加息50个基点以上
$42,643 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in headline inflation to 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026, alongside a soft June jobs report showing just 57,000 payroll gains, has reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the October 27-28 meeting. The July FOMC decision, passed 9-3 with hawkish dissents, highlighted internal divisions but left policy unchanged pending further data. Elevated core pressures and geopolitical energy risks have lifted the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 22.5%, yet the market-implied path still favors patience until after the August CPI release and September meeting. Upcoming July employment and inflation prints, plus Jackson Hole, remain key swing factors for October pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$456,455结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in headline inflation to 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026, alongside a soft June jobs report showing just 57,000 payroll gains, has reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the October 27-28 meeting. The July FOMC decision, passed 9-3 with hawkish dissents, highlighted internal divisions but left policy unchanged pending further data. Elevated core pressures and geopolitical energy risks have lifted the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 22.5%, yet the market-implied path still favors patience until after the August CPI release and September meeting. Upcoming July employment and inflation prints, plus Jackson Hole, remain key swing factors for October pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$456,455结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in headline inflation to 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026, alongside a soft June jobs report showing just 57,000 payroll gains, has reinforced trader expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the October 27-28 meeting. The July FOMC decision, passed 9-3 with hawkish dissents, highlighted internal divisions but left policy unchanged pending further data. Elevated core pressures and geopolitical energy risks have lifted the odds of a 25 basis point hike to 22.5%, yet the market-implied path still favors patience until after the August CPI release and September meeting. Upcoming July employment and inflation prints, plus Jackson Hole, remain key swing factors for October pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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