Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4.25% by year-end. Elevated PCE inflation around 3.6-3.7%, resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and upside risks from geopolitical developments and tariffs have shifted the dot plot toward additional tightening. With limited meetings remaining, the 53.4% probability on 4.25% and 30.2% on 4.5% or higher reflect the market's assessment of these factors holding or pushing rates modestly higher, while lower outcomes remain sidelined absent rapid disinflation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.25% 53.4%
大于等于4.5% 29.8%
4.0% 13.7%
3.75% 3.1%
$6,889,175 交易量
$6,889,175 交易量
2026-12-08
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
<1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.75%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
2%
3.75%
3%
4.0%
14%
4.25%
53%
大于等于4.5%
30%
4.25% 53.4%
大于等于4.5% 29.8%
4.0% 13.7%
3.75% 3.1%
$6,889,175 交易量
$6,889,175 交易量
2026-12-08
≤1.0%
$257,492 交易量
<1%
1.25
$153,686 交易量
<1%
1.5%
$151,449 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$153,819 交易量
<1%
2.0%
$269,412 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$93,225 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$179,954 交易量
<1%
2.75%
$70,083 交易量
<1%
3.0%
$500,311 交易量
<1%
3.25%
$85,419 交易量
<1%
3.5%
$206,199 交易量
2%
3.75%
$538,730 交易量
3%
4.0%
$1,373,683 交易量
14%
4.25%
$441,467 交易量
53%
大于等于4.5%
$2,414,247 交易量
30%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4.25% by year-end. Elevated PCE inflation around 3.6-3.7%, resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and upside risks from geopolitical developments and tariffs have shifted the dot plot toward additional tightening. With limited meetings remaining, the 53.4% probability on 4.25% and 30.2% on 4.5% or higher reflect the market's assessment of these factors holding or pushing rates modestly higher, while lower outcomes remain sidelined absent rapid disinflation.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,889,175结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETThe FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4.25% by year-end. Elevated PCE inflation around 3.6-3.7%, resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and upside risks from geopolitical developments and tariffs have shifted the dot plot toward additional tightening. With limited meetings remaining, the 53.4% probability on 4.25% and 30.2% on 4.5% or higher reflect the market's assessment of these factors holding or pushing rates modestly higher, while lower outcomes remain sidelined absent rapid disinflation.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,889,175结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETRecent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4.25% by year-end. Elevated PCE inflation around 3.6-3.7%, resilient growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and upside risks from geopolitical developments and tariffs have shifted the dot plot toward additional tightening. With limited meetings remaining, the 53.4% probability on 4.25% and 30.2% on 4.5% or higher reflect the market's assessment of these factors holding or pushing rates modestly higher, while lower outcomes remain sidelined absent rapid disinflation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题