Recent inflation readings, including March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader consensus around a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026 with 60.2% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents over forward-guidance language, reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize containing price pressures over near-term easing despite a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. This positioning aligns with the latest FOMC dot plot and CME FedWatch probabilities showing limited scope for cuts through year-end, while upcoming June data releases and the leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term end on May 15 introduce potential volatility in longer-term rate path assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.75% 60.2%
4.0% 16.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,396 交易量
$6,523,396 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
60%
4.0%
16%
4.25%
4%
大于等于4.5%
1%
3.75% 60.2%
4.0% 16.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,396 交易量
$6,523,396 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$216,014 交易量
<1%
1.25
$134,363 交易量
1%
1.5%
$134,117 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 交易量
1%
2.0%
$246,025 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 交易量
1%
2.75%
$46,024 交易量
1%
3.0%
$454,736 交易量
4%
3.25%
$51,537 交易量
8%
3.5%
$190,202 交易量
7%
3.75%
$518,453 交易量
60%
4.0%
$1,358,628 交易量
16%
4.25%
$413,541 交易量
4%
大于等于4.5%
$2,396,040 交易量
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation readings, including March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader consensus around a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026 with 60.2% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents over forward-guidance language, reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize containing price pressures over near-term easing despite a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. This positioning aligns with the latest FOMC dot plot and CME FedWatch probabilities showing limited scope for cuts through year-end, while upcoming June data releases and the leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term end on May 15 introduce potential volatility in longer-term rate path assessments.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,523,396结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation readings, including March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader consensus around a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026 with 60.2% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents over forward-guidance language, reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize containing price pressures over near-term easing despite a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. This positioning aligns with the latest FOMC dot plot and CME FedWatch probabilities showing limited scope for cuts through year-end, while upcoming June data releases and the leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term end on May 15 introduce potential volatility in longer-term rate path assessments.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,523,396结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation readings, including March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader consensus around a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026 with 60.2% market-implied odds. The Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision to hold the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents over forward-guidance language, reinforced expectations that policymakers will prioritize containing price pressures over near-term easing despite a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. This positioning aligns with the latest FOMC dot plot and CME FedWatch probabilities showing limited scope for cuts through year-end, while upcoming June data releases and the leadership transition following Chair Powell’s term end on May 15 introduce potential volatility in longer-term rate path assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题