Recent inflation data and Federal Reserve communications have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63-4.70 percent in mid-August 2026 after a February low near 3.94 percent, with traders pricing in limited further declines before 2027. Sticky core inflation readings, elevated term premiums, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits have offset earlier rate-cut expectations, while geopolitical tensions and resilient growth support higher yields. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed's current pause at the 3.50-3.75 percent funds rate target, with upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and labor reports likely to determine whether yields test sub-4 percent levels or remain range-bound above 4 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$225,212 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
4%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 交易量
3.9%
$44,197 交易量
12%
3.8%
$41,312 交易量
5%
3.7%
$27,383 交易量
2%
3.6%
$5,587 交易量
4%
3.5%
$32,973 交易量
4%
3.0%
$917 交易量
2%
2.0%
$514 交易量
2%
1.0%
$40,570 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation data and Federal Reserve communications have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63-4.70 percent in mid-August 2026 after a February low near 3.94 percent, with traders pricing in limited further declines before 2027. Sticky core inflation readings, elevated term premiums, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits have offset earlier rate-cut expectations, while geopolitical tensions and resilient growth support higher yields. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed's current pause at the 3.50-3.75 percent funds rate target, with upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and labor reports likely to determine whether yields test sub-4 percent levels or remain range-bound above 4 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$225,212结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation data and Federal Reserve communications have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63-4.70 percent in mid-August 2026 after a February low near 3.94 percent, with traders pricing in limited further declines before 2027. Sticky core inflation readings, elevated term premiums, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits have offset earlier rate-cut expectations, while geopolitical tensions and resilient growth support higher yields. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed's current pause at the 3.50-3.75 percent funds rate target, with upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and labor reports likely to determine whether yields test sub-4 percent levels or remain range-bound above 4 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$225,212结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data and Federal Reserve communications have anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.63-4.70 percent in mid-August 2026 after a February low near 3.94 percent, with traders pricing in limited further declines before 2027. Sticky core inflation readings, elevated term premiums, and heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits have offset earlier rate-cut expectations, while geopolitical tensions and resilient growth support higher yields. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed's current pause at the 3.50-3.75 percent funds rate target, with upcoming September FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and labor reports likely to determine whether yields test sub-4 percent levels or remain range-bound above 4 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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