Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$225,212 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 交易量
3.9%
$44,197 交易量
12%
3.8%
$41,312 交易量
5%
3.7%
$27,383 交易量
2%
3.6%
$5,587 交易量
5%
3.5%
$32,973 交易量
4%
3.0%
$917 交易量
3%
2.0%
$514 交易量
2%
1.0%
$40,570 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$225,212结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$225,212结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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